Nafie Ali Nafie is quoted by the state news agency SUNA saying secession “has become probable.” Nafie is an aide to President Omar Bashir and a deputy chief of the ruling party.

SUNA quotes Nafie telling a conference in Khartoum on Thursday, “we should not deceive ourselves ... we have to adhere to the facts and the reality.” The referendum is required under a 2005 peace deal that ended the two-decade civil war between north and south and could lead to the splitting of Sudan — Africa's largest nation — into two countries.

With the independence referendum in the south expected to lead to its breakaway, Sudan's economy is feeling the pinch as its currency plummets while bread and sugar prices rise.

"It is now four loaves for the price of five," a baker said outside his shop in a dusty bazaar in Khartoum, where prices are going up ahead of the Jan. 9 vote that many expect will result in an independent South Sudan.

"A week ago, people were getting five loaves for a Sudanese pound (40 cents). Now people are getting four loaves. They're not happy," said Mohammed.

"The price of a flour sack jumped 30 percent overnight," said Zein Al-Tum, a trader in Omdurman, which lies across the Nile river from Khartoum.

The government has been trying desperately to allay fears that the north's economy will collapse with the secession of the oil- and resources-rich south.

"Whoever spreads the rumor that north Sudan's economy will collapse with southern secession is obviously misguided," said Nafie.

"Sudan has plenty of alternatives, whether in agriculture or minerals."

Though he insisted that southern independence would have a limited impact on the northern economy, he also admitted that secession was the most likely outcome of the vote.

For their bread, Sudan's poor are being squeezed not only by the political uncertainty ahead of the referendum, but also rising wheat prices on the global market.

According to latest data from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, the world price of wheat has risen by 12 percent from its average in November, and 70 percent from the July average.