While one study expects that moderation in private consumption is likely to pull down India’s economic expansion to 8.35 percent in the second half of this fiscal from 8.9 percent in April-September, another leading think-tank put the country’s real GDP growth in the current fiscal at 9.2 percent.

According to a latest report by the global consultant Dun & Bradstreet (D&B), India’s inflation is likely to fall to five percent by March 2011 due to base effect. “But since it is a statistical decline, the common man will not get much relief,” it added.

The report, reiterating the concern raised by the Reserve Bank of India in its mid-quarterly review, also warned that rising global crude oil prices may impact inflation.

“The underlying growth momentum for the Indian economy is expected to remain strong with improving consumption and investment, though some moderation would be visible in the headline growth numbers from the current levels. We expect the GDP growth to moderate to an average of 8.35 percent during the second half of FY11,” said Arun Singh, a senior economist at Dun & Bradstreet.

However, according to the Center for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), India’s real GDP growth is expected to be higher than the first-half in the second-half of this fiscal.

“We expect real GDP to grow by 9.7 percent in the second-half of the current fiscal. This will be higher than the 8.9 percent growth recorded in the first-half of the fiscal,” it said.

The major contributor will be agriculture and trade, transport, hotels and communication segment of the services sector, CMIE said, adding that the performance of the finance, insurance, real estate, business and service segments will also improve in the second-half of the year.

On its part, D&B said that the high growth rate of the first half may not be sustainable. “Growth in private consumption expenditure is anticipated to moderate to more sustainable levels in the near term from the current high level. Further, the high growth in the automobiles segment which was propelling the consumer durables sector indicating buoyant demand conditions has been recently witnessing a gradual moderation,” it said.

The CMIE, meanwhile, said that India’s real GDP growth in fiscal 2010-11 is likely to be at 9.2 percent. “We expect a 9.2 percent growth in real GDP in fiscal 2010-11,” the think tank said in its latest review of the Indian economy here. In last financial year, the country’s real GDP grew by 7.4 percent.

All the three broad sectors of the economy — industrial, services and agricultural and allied sectors — are expected to fare well, said the CMIE. While the industrial sector is projected to grow by 9.4 percent, the services sector is expected to expand by 10 percent. The agricultural and allied sector is projected to grow by 5.1 percent this fiscal, the think tank added.

But the D&B painted a slightly gloomy picture of the economy. “The marked volatility in industrial activity, which has been the key driver of growth in the recent past, does raise a concern and is expected to consolidate to more sustainable levels in the near term, thereby, restraining the overall GDP growth,” it said.

An Indian government official on Monday said that India’s economy is expected to grow at nine percent.

“In the current year, the economy will grow between 8.5-9 percent. So the growth rate for manufacturing and the services sector will be in excess of nine percent. There is no doubt that the Indian economy has moved on to higher growth trajectory,” said C Rangarajan, chairman of the Economic Advisory Council to the Indian prime minister. “The expectation is that the Indian economy will continue to grow at nine percent per annum for the next decade or beyond,” he added.