Iraq’s Air Force won’t ready to maintain air sovereignty any time in the foreseeable future, the experts said. Last year, the government announced its intention of purchasing 18 F-16 Block 52 multi-role interceptors in an effort to fast track its way to an effective air defense, but delivery will only begin in 2013 and even this date is reportedly being pushed back, they said

“I don’t think the US Air Force will be able to leave Iraq for at least five years, as there’s no way that the Iraqis alone will be able to deal with any kind of air threat for this period,” said Brig.-Gen. (ret.) Musa Qallab, an independent defense expert and former program manager for Gulf Cooperation Council Defense Issues Gulf Research Center in Dubai.

“But the probable threats are not imminent right now,” Qallab told The Media Line.

The US has been working feverishly to bring the Iraqi capabilities up to a level capable of patrolling its own airspace.

In just the past 12 months US airmen have doubled the number of trained Iraqi airmen and helped field more than 130 fixed- and rotary-wing aircraft for the Iraqi air force. These were mostly helicopters, transport planes and some T-6 Texans. But, hobbled by a shrinking budget, the Iraqi Air Force has delayed procurement programs, setting back its timetable for getting fighter aircraft such as the Lockheed Martin F-16s, the first purchase of US combat platforms in a $4.3 billion deal.

“This is a particularly important time in Iraq,” Daniel Ginsberg, assistant secretary of the Air Force, was quoted as saying during a visit to Baghdad this week, where he met with US airmen working to equip and train the Iraqi Air Force. “Airmen, like you all, are stepping up to make sure the mission gets done.”

Brig.-Gen. Jeffrey Buchanan, the top US military spokesman in Iraq, recently said the Iraqi Air Force was ill equipped to maintain air sovereignty alone.

“Their ability to defend their air space against air threats is … not going be what they desire by the time” US forces leave, Defense News quoted Buchanan as saying in December.

Iraqi airspace has reportedly been penetrated repeatedly in recent years. Turkish aircraft have crossed into Iraqi airspace to strike at Kurdish forces in the north. Israel has used Iraqi skies to practice attacking Iran, Defense News reported. And, in March 2009, US forces shot down an Iranian drone flying over Iraqi territory.

Still, according to Ayman Khalil, director of the Arab Institute for Security Studies (ACSIS), Amman, there was no great threat perception in Iraq from Iran.

“There is, actually, an Iranian influence when it comes to the defense and intelligence bodies. And to an extent it is affecting the Iraqi military doctrine,” Khalil told The Media Line.

“This Iranian ideology aims to lead the country out of any US intervention but will also see the Iraqi government keep some high level advisers” beyond the December 2011 troop withdrawal deadline, he said.

Under Operation New Dawn, nearly 50,000 US service members in Iraq continue to conduct stability operations on the ground, focusing on advising, assisting and training Iraqi security forces. But Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki said shortly after forming a new government that he doesn’t want US troops to stay beyond 2011. Nevertheless, senior advisers are expected to remain well after this date.

“Advisers are good for the Iraqis and the Iranians,” Khalil said, adding that “any information sharing on military knowledge may find its way to the Iranians.”

Khalil said the Iraqi Air Force under Saddam Hussein had been one of the most capable in the Arab world, with advanced Soviet and French aircraft that garnered vast combat experience in the lengthy war against Iran. But most of the air force was sent to Iran during the first Gulf War and the remainder were buried underground during the second Gulf War. Iran incorporated those aircraft into its own air force.

Khalil said there then followed a “systematic elimination of key air force officers.”

“On the streets of Baghdad, 25 key pilots were shot dead in cold blood in the city. The brains behind the Iraqi Air Force are no longer there,” he said.

Qallab, the retired general, said he believed the Americans would likely maintain an air base in the Baghdad area despite the political complications.

“A main major base could defend Iraq partially, but it could be supported by an aircraft carrier in the Gulf and air bases in Turkey and eastern Jordan,” Qallab said.

“Iraq is planning to have at least four air bases; north, south, near Baghdad and the western sector. But the United States doesn’t have to wait until the Iraqi Air Force is built and equipped completely. They could lease Iraq F-16s for this (transitional|) period until they gradually are able to manage their own airspace,” Qallab said.