One of the more experienced organizations in town, The National Council on US-Arab Relations, held a briefing this week examining the current “Mideast turmoil.”

Speakers included Robert Lacey, whose recent book “Inside the Kingdom: Kings, Clerics, Modernists, Terrorists, and the Struggle for Saudi Arabia” has won acclaim both inside and outside the Kingdom.

Other speakers included David Long, a consultant on Middle East and Gulf affairs and international terrorism; Peter Iseman, a historian and commentator on Mideast and Gulf affairs; and Herman Franssen, Senior Director of the Energy Intelligence Group

Session moderator John Duke Anthony, president of NCUSAR, noted that the United States is in a self-imposed bind. On one hand, he said, it has had little choice but to weigh the potential implications of regional turmoil for its regional strategic, economic, and national security interests.

On the other, he noted, it was simultaneously confronted with how best to promote its officially declared additional interests in furthering political pluralism, economic reforms, and a range of human rights as well as greater democratization.

He indicated it hardly helped to burnish America’s credentials regarding the last-named goal in recent days when it thwarted the democratic will of the world’s highest political body, the UN Security Council, by vetoing an otherwise unanimously supported resolution denouncing the illegality of Israeli settlements in the Occupied Palestinian Territories.

Lacey, who moved to Jeddah with his family in 1978, wrote “The Kingdom: Arabia and the House of Saud” in 1982. Thus, he knows the country well, and admitted Saudi Arabia was “facing some major challenges.”

He said the recent example of the Jeddah floods, which occurred two years in a row, had angered many Saudis.

For Westerners, he brought up a fascinating poll recently conducted by the British Embassy regarding change in the Kingdom. The results showed that that 20 percent of Saudis said they wanted much more change; another 20 percent said things ‘were about right,’ but that a startling 60 percent of Saudis said, “things have changed too much.”

Lacey said he recently asked a Jeddah businessman what he thought about the latest reforms announced by the King Abdullah upon his recent return to Saudi Arabia after successful medical treatment abroad. His friend, the businessman, responded that the changes “were long overdue,” adding that “so much of the Saudi economy is linked to government spending. There is a need for a more diversified economy.”

Regarding the recent political upheavals in the Arab world, Lacey said he learned that the king welcomed the recent changes. “But, regarding President Mubarak, one needs to remember that in 1990, Palestinians turned on Saudi Arabia, Yemen turned on Saudi Arabia, but it was Mubarak who said we will come to your rescue, we will send you our troops,” said Lacey.

“What is happening in the Arab world is in line with much of what King Abdullah has spoken about during the past few years. King Abdullah views what’s going on in the Arab world as an endorsement of what he stands for as a leader.”

Lacey said changes were noticeable in the Kingdom, and he gave particular credit to Saudi newspapers, which he said, “have become more open and more investigative at things happening within the Kingdom.”

Peter Iseman, a historian and commentator on Mideast and Gulf affairs, took an overview of the region. “Kuwait, Oman, the Emirates, Qatar, Saudi Arabia will remain stable, Bahrain will make it by a whisker,” he said, but doubted that Yemen, specifically the Saleh government, would make it.

Regarding North Africa, Iseman predicted that “Morocco will make it. Algeria will muddle through. But Libya presents a whole frightening set of prospects.”

Herman Franssen, Senior Director of the Energy Intelligence Group, is familiar with the Gulf, having worked as an adviser to the Minister of Petroleum and Minerals in Oman from 1985-1996.

Saudi Arabia, he said, is the perfect custodian of the world’s oil wells. “Saudi Arabia doesn’t want prices to be too high, wants it to be priced at what the minister of energy has stated as competitive price.”

The Saudi reserves, he said, translates to 25 percent of the world’s oil reserves and 15 percent of the global production capacity, 20 percent of global capacity.

“Saudi Arabia is to the oil market what corn is to the US market,” said Franssen.

Even if Libyan oil is taken off the market, Franssen said: “We should not be too concerned as Saudi will put more oil on the market from its spare capacity, along with the Emirates and Kuwait.

“Saudi Arabia has been the most stable producer of oil and has gone out of its way to add and remove additional supply as needed.”

“Libya produces 1.7 million barrels per day of oil which has had a significant impact globally during the unrest in the country, unlike Tunisia and Egypt which did not have as significant impact on the energy market. A result of Libya’s unrest is Saudi Arabia immediately increased its production to offset Libya,” said Franssen, adding that most Libyan crude goes to Europe, 25 percent to Italy, and the remainder to the Far East.

“There is no physical shortage of oil; it is anxiety that the bankers and the analysts have that drive the pricing of oil at record high prices,” said Franssen.