Tunisia’s main hard-line political group, Ennahda, led by moderate Muslim scholar Rachid Ghannouchi and banned under Ben Ali, says it will contest an election slated for July after 23 years of one-man rule.

Experts say it could poll well, particularly in the conservative south, where there is deep frustration over poverty and unemployment.

“If Ennahda takes power, there will be a coup d’etat,” Farhat Rajhi, who took over as Tunisian interior minister soon after the revolution, said in a video shared on Facebook.

“The people of the coast are not disposed to give up power and, if the elections go against them, there will be a coup d’etat.”

“People of the coast” is a reference to Ben Ali loyalists who have their power base in and around his hometown, the coastal city of Sousse.

Ben Ali’s overthrow in January in the first of the uprisings to rock the Arab world has awoken tensions between liberals and hard-liners.

Rajhi is considered relatively independent, and a shrewd observer of Tunisian politics. But Ennahda officials said they did not believe a coup was likely.

“We do not yet have an official position on the declaration by Rajhi, but I can tell you that we have faith in all the elements of the state and in the people to respect the will of the people,” said Nourdine Bhiri, a senior Ennahda official.

The July 23 vote is for an assembly that will draft a new constitution.

Rajhi was made interior minister soon after the revolution and replaced in March in the latest shakeup of a caretaker government struggling to keep Tunisia’s shaky transition to democracy on track.

An ominous sign has been a string of mass prison breaks, the latest late on Wednesday when 58 prisoners escaped in Tunisia’s second city of Sfax and were met by accomplices armed with metal bars and knives, the official TAP news agency reported.

Tunisian security officials have said in the past they believe the prison breaks to be the work of Ben Ali loyalists trying to sow chaos and undermine the transition.