- TURKISH Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said that Ankara is ready to step up the pressure on Syria by hosting an international conference of like-minded states to send a message of solidarity and support to the embattled Syrian people and to explore ways to further weaken and to isolate the regime.
The intention to hold such a meeting was announced on Feb. 8 in anticipation of a Russian veto at the United Nations. "If the UN Security Council does not fulfill the mission of protecting the right to life of civilians in Syria, then there must be another platform to discuss this. We cannot be just silent observers," he said.
Russia and China have enraged the rest of the international community when they jointly vetoed a UN Security Council resolution condemning Assad’s regime. Turkey was particularly unpleased with Moscow’s decision not to cooperate at the UN to facilitate an end to the crisis. Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, who has been using anti-external intervention in Syrian within the context of domestic elections battle, warned against behaving "like a bull in a china shop," emphasizing that only Syrians should be allowed to decide their own future. This message was conveyed to the rest of the world when Russia’s foreign minister paid a visit to Syria in the wake of the infamous Russian veto.
These days, Ankara and the Arab League are at the forefront of regional effort to affect the desired outcome of the Syrian crisis. Recently, the Arab League took a radical decision, calling for a joint Arab-UN peacekeeping task to be sent to Syria. Ankara was upbeat to hear the scope of what the Arabs can do to end violence and the bloody crackdown in Syria. “Turkey and the Arab League are working in close coordination to develop a regional initiative to solve the Syrian crisis,” said Veysel Ayhan, an expert on the Middle East from the Center for Middle Eastern Strategic Studies (ORSAM). Experts agree that instability in Syria has been a source of concern for Turkish policy makers. Turkey is a key regional power in the Middle East that shares its longest border (600 miles) with Syria. Observers say that if the crisis in Syrian continues unabated, Turkey stands to lose. Moreover, Turkey has become a base for the nascent Free Syria Army after many defectors arrived in Turkey.
As violence has ramped up, claiming a great number of casualties, pressure for an international intervention is mounting. And that puts Turkey in a difficult position. Bayram Balci argues in Carnegie’s paper that if things escalate more, Ankara will find itself at the frontline. This is true, and the West does not want to take the lead on this particular issue. Western Europe and the United States have been through a difficult economic time, and elections loom in the offing. The last thing Barack Obama seeks is an adventure in the running up to the November election of this year. In addition to that, the region is not yet ready for another big bang war with a lot of uncertainties.
And yet, Turkey has been facing a dilemma, as all of its effort to bring about a change in the regime’s attitude did not pay off. Turkey had never sought to change the regime before Bashar Assad became impossible. In his most recent visit to the United States, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said that Ankara wanted Syrian leader Bashar Assad to be like the former Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev. Sadly, he prefers to be like the late Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic.
Over the 11-month old crisis, several scenarios for facilitating and expediting external intervention to overthrow the regime were put forward. Ankara suggested the creation of a buffer zone on Syrian territory. France also suggested a creation of protected humanitarian corridors only to get supplies to Syrian citizens. Others suggested a no-fly zone over Syria to deprive the regime from the freedom of using the airspace to crack down on people. In fact, any of the above options cannot be possible without active cooperation by Turkey.
As for Turkey, the worst-case scenario is a deterioration of the domestic situation into chaos and anarchy. Syria, in this case, can be subject to an unnecessary split along religious and ethnic lines. Neighboring states, and particularly Turkey, will not have the luxury to sit by without doing anything. Many players will be dragged into a conflict, and for this reason, the Turkish government has a very good reason to worry. Undoubtedly, an open conflict in Syria with much external intervention will have grave consequences for regional stability and security. Added to this, the Kurds of Syria have been adopting a wait-and-see strategy. There are fears the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) can benefit from a possible instability and lack of control in Syria to launch attacks on Turkish targets.
And yet, Turkey is set to continue its assistance to the Syrian opposition. There are a number of Turkish nongovernmental organizations such as Mazlumder and Human Rights and Freedoms and Humanitarian Relief (IHH) who have stepped in the ring and started working to make life easier for Syrian refugees and opposition groups. As Ankara’s number one priority is national security, it has been more reluctant than proactive about the situation in Syria. Clearly, the Turkish troops would not go into Syria alone without a clear international mandate with a very active involvement from Arab states.
After the failure to garner support at the UN to take action against Syria, Ankara’s suggestions to hold an international conference should be taken seriously. The Turkish foreign minister did not stipulate that the conference be held in Ankara, provided that it will be in the region. In his current visit to the United States, Ahmet Davutoglu is trying to get the American backing for a proposed conference on the situation in Syria to figure out the best way to emasculate and isolate the Syrian president while supporting the opposition.
For Turkey to succeed in its proactive diplomacy, a roadmap for Syria should be articulated in the first place. Although the Turkish officials argue that the roadmap is clear, it is yet to be detailed. For the time being, the Turkish pro-government Sabah daily reported that Turkey is coordinating and cooperating with the Arab League to hold a “friends of Syria” meeting. Following this meeting, an international conference will be held in Istanbul with broader participation of UN Security Council members, the EU, and the Arabs.
France has already expressed its support for the Turkish effort to end the crisis in Syria. However, it remains to be seen how this call for international gathering will play out. The discussions the foreign minister is holding with his American counterpart are decisive in which way Turkey is going. All in all, Turkey is taking the lead these days, but equally important, the Gulf countries are taking the lead at the Arab League to step up the pressure on the embattled regime in Damascus.



