Barclays
The bank lowered its forecast for Brent and WTI prices for the second and third quarters of 2017 and raised them for the fourth quarter. Brent is likely to average $58 in 2Q and $53 in 3Q, Barclays analysts said in an April 4 note. That compares with a February forecast of $62 in 2Q and $56 in 3Q. WTI is expected to average at $56 in 2Q, down from $60 forecast in February. Brent is set to average $59 in 4Q, up by $4 from February’s projection, Barclays said. WTI’s forecast is also raised by $4 to average $58 in 4Q. The bank expects Brent to average $67 in 2018, while WTI will average $65.
Nomura
The big spikes in oil prices after last week’s US strike on Syria may prove temporary, Nomura said on April 7. “As long as the military actions in Syria (are) well-contained (not spreading into Iraq), and Syria is no longer a significant oil producer, any big spikes in oil prices could prove temporary,” it said. Global oil flows will not be impacted significantly, assuming the US military strikes do not increase tensions with Syria’s ally Russia, it added.
Fitch
Oil prices are too low to balance government budgets in the majority of the Middle East, emerging Europe, and African oil-exporting nations, Fitch said in a report on April 6. Oil prices will average $52.50 per barrel in 2017 versus $45.10 last year, it said. The forecast is below fiscal break-even levels for 11 of 14 major Fitch-rated Middle East, emerging Europe and African oil-exporting sovereigns, it said. Only Kuwait has a 2017 fiscal break-even price “appreciably” below the Fitch forecast, it added.
BMI
The researcher cut its expectations for the WTI average price to $53.75 from the earlier forecast of $55, it said in a note dated April 4. The outlook on the US benchmark has become more bearish in April due to recent upgrades to the country’s shale production forecast and pending start-up of the Dakota Access Pipeline. The price forecast for Brent is maintained at an annual average of $57 per barrel for 2017, reflecting a moderately bullish short-term outlook compared to current prices. Growth in consumption will outstrip growth in production this year, while the process of market rebalancing will remain a gradual one, BMI said.
BNP
If OPEC kept its production restraint beyond the first half of the year, it will support the price of Brent while the price of WTI will have to contend with further US supply growth, BNP Paribas strategists including Harry Tchilinguirian wrote in a report on April 7. Oil stocks at Cushing will not see a rapid drawdown even as refiners come out of maintenance, the report said. The bank expects weakness in the difference in prices between WTI and Brent, also known as the WTI-Brent spread, to roll into July and possibly August.
The bank lowered its forecast for Brent and WTI prices for the second and third quarters of 2017 and raised them for the fourth quarter. Brent is likely to average $58 in 2Q and $53 in 3Q, Barclays analysts said in an April 4 note. That compares with a February forecast of $62 in 2Q and $56 in 3Q. WTI is expected to average at $56 in 2Q, down from $60 forecast in February. Brent is set to average $59 in 4Q, up by $4 from February’s projection, Barclays said. WTI’s forecast is also raised by $4 to average $58 in 4Q. The bank expects Brent to average $67 in 2018, while WTI will average $65.
Nomura
The big spikes in oil prices after last week’s US strike on Syria may prove temporary, Nomura said on April 7. “As long as the military actions in Syria (are) well-contained (not spreading into Iraq), and Syria is no longer a significant oil producer, any big spikes in oil prices could prove temporary,” it said. Global oil flows will not be impacted significantly, assuming the US military strikes do not increase tensions with Syria’s ally Russia, it added.
Fitch
Oil prices are too low to balance government budgets in the majority of the Middle East, emerging Europe, and African oil-exporting nations, Fitch said in a report on April 6. Oil prices will average $52.50 per barrel in 2017 versus $45.10 last year, it said. The forecast is below fiscal break-even levels for 11 of 14 major Fitch-rated Middle East, emerging Europe and African oil-exporting sovereigns, it said. Only Kuwait has a 2017 fiscal break-even price “appreciably” below the Fitch forecast, it added.
BMI
The researcher cut its expectations for the WTI average price to $53.75 from the earlier forecast of $55, it said in a note dated April 4. The outlook on the US benchmark has become more bearish in April due to recent upgrades to the country’s shale production forecast and pending start-up of the Dakota Access Pipeline. The price forecast for Brent is maintained at an annual average of $57 per barrel for 2017, reflecting a moderately bullish short-term outlook compared to current prices. Growth in consumption will outstrip growth in production this year, while the process of market rebalancing will remain a gradual one, BMI said.
BNP
If OPEC kept its production restraint beyond the first half of the year, it will support the price of Brent while the price of WTI will have to contend with further US supply growth, BNP Paribas strategists including Harry Tchilinguirian wrote in a report on April 7. Oil stocks at Cushing will not see a rapid drawdown even as refiners come out of maintenance, the report said. The bank expects weakness in the difference in prices between WTI and Brent, also known as the WTI-Brent spread, to roll into July and possibly August.
