LONDON: Crude oil prices are likely to bottom out in the first half of 2015, until a possible slowdown in US shale production counters a supply glut exacerbated by OPEC’s decision not to cut output, a Reuters monthly survey showed.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ agreement to stand pat on output meant the onus for any supply cutbacks was now on non-OPEC producers, primarily led by US shale oil, analysts said.

“Oil prices will be lower, making shale oil production less attractive for investments, which are necessary to keep shale oil production growing,” Commerzbank’s Carsten Fritsch said.

Oil is seen recovering in the second half as non-OPEC production responds to lower prices, while demand picks up in the course of the year, the poll showed.

The survey of 30 economists and analysts projected Brent to average $74.00 a barrel next year and $80.30 in 2016.

The forecast for 2015 is $8.50 below the average projection in the previous Reuters poll. The November poll number was down $11.20 from October, marking the biggest downgrade in average forecasts since the 2008 economic downturn.

Brent this month hit five-year lows below $60 a barrel, down almost half from peaks reached in June. Brent has averaged $100.57 so far this year.

Brent was up 74 cents at $62.12 on Monday. US crude CLc1 was up 66 cents at $57.79 a barrel.

“In terms of the floor price, we think $60 per barrel will be the level at which fast-rising US shale oil producers will feel the pinch,” ANZ analyst Natalie Rampono said.