NEW YORK: Oil prices will drop further this year as a market awash with non-conventional production gets limited support from a tepid global economic recovery, a Reuters poll says.

Reuters January oil price survey of 30 analysts forecasts North Sea Brent crude oil will average $104.00 a barrel in 2014, 4 percent below last year’s average of $108.70.

“Oil will be caught in the crossfire of rampant growth in US oil supply capping the price upside, with continuing supply-side risk and OPEC supply management providing a price floor,” analysts Harry Tchilinguirian and Gareth Lewis-Davies of BNP Paribas said.

Oil supply growth driven by the shale oil revolution in the US and oil sands output from Canada, and helped by extra production in Russia, Brazil, and Iraq, will keep a lid on oil prices, analysts say.

Receding tension in Libya, and an easing of sanctions on Iran, are also bearish for prices this year, they argue.

“The return of oil from Iran later this year and abrupt increases in supply from Iraq and Libya could lead to increased supply from OPEC,” analyst Abhishek Deshpande of Natixis said.

Global demand for oil will rise, but not as quickly as supply, analysts forecast.

“We expect the global economic recovery to remain relatively subdued,” analyst Thomas Pugh of Capital Economics said.

“This is due both to fundamental weaknesses in major advanced economies, notably the eurozone and Japan, and to structural slowdowns in key emerging markets, led by China.”

A gradual roll back of economic stimulus measures by the US Federal Reserve is unlikely to have a significant impact on oil prices, and analysts argue financial markets have mostly anticipated the change.

The poll forecast US light crude, also known as West Texas Intermediate or WTI, would average $96.70 a barrel in 2014. Brent’s premium to its US counterpart was seen narrowing to $7.30 per barrel from last year’s $10.58.

Raiffeisen Bank International had the highest Brent forecast at $115 for 2014, while Raymond James had the lowest at $90.0 per barrel. In 2015, the North Sea crude oil benchmark is expected to slip to $101.80, and the US benchmark to $95.80.