Strong demand keeps oil prices rising

Offshore oil drilling platform ‘Gail’ operated by Venoco, Inc., is shown off the coast of Santa Barbara, California (File photo / AP)
Updated 29 September 2018
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Strong demand keeps oil prices rising

RIYADH: Oil prices continued their upward momentum and the price of Brent crude rose to $82.72 per barrel. This was the first weekly closing above $80 since October 2014. West Texan Intermediate hit $73.25 per barrel. The Brent/Dubai spread widened to $9.47 per barrel by the week’s closing on Friday. The recovery in oil prices owes much to the strength of global oil demand.
When OPEC met in November 2014 and decided to change its market strategy, global oil demand was about 92 million barrels per day (bpd). It has now grown to nearly 100 million bpd, with crude inventories down below the five-year average.
For the first time since August 2014, predictions have begun on the return of oil to $100 per barrel. This is happening in an atmosphere of uncertainty as further output increases from OPEC are yet to materialize. At present, the market is not in need of any production hikes to compensate for the US sanctions on Iran’s oil exports.
Revising oil price forecasts higher could be rational, but the fundamental bullishness might be tempered by theoretical concerns over demand that have no strong argument of support. Inventory drawdowns continue and global oil demand has risen 7.5 million bpd since the end of 2014.
The fall in Iran’s oil output has yet to result in growth in OPEC’s output because the market supply/demand balance is still not in a supply deficit. This is why OPEC’s decision for an output increase will follow Iran’s output decline inversely for the rest of 2018. OPEC’s output is likely to rise in 2019 as needed.
Should output be increased now or is it still premature to ramp up production?
This is the question that every market analyst is considering. There are arguments that the oil market cannot be tight and yet well supplied at the same time. This is true. But although the market is tight, supply deficits haven’t materialized. For instance, all Saudi Aramco crude oil customers have been allocated their requested monthly crude oil shipments in their entirety. This is a strong sign that there is not a supply deficit in the market.
Additionally, the US has decided to sell 11 million barrels of oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). Deliveries are to take place in October and November. The US SPR currently stores 660 million barrels of oil in massive underground salt caverns. It is the world’s largest supply of emergency crude oil. March 2014 was the last time oil was released from the SPR on a test basis. That happened when oil prices were almost $30 per barrel higher than their current level. It is possible for the US President to decide to tap the US SPR to try to modulate oil prices for the first time, but many analysts believe such a move would be largely symbolic.
The release of 11 million barrels isn’t enough to make up Iran’s entire production but that might not be necessary. This week India confirmed that it will continue to import oil from Iran, albeit at a reduced rate. China has also reduced Iranian oil imports but continues to defend its energy trade with Tehran.
US President Trump could attempt to pressure India into a zero import position for Iranian oil, for without it his sanctions lack impact. However, efforts are under way by the EU, China and Russia to implement a barter system with Iran that will allow it to exchange oil for the imports it needs. OPEC is surely waiting to see just how much production is required before ramping up output.
Tapping the US SPR might not reduce oil prices amid the oil market tightness but instead further widen the Brent/WTI spread as a result of the difficulties facing shale oil producers in exporting their oil. This comes simultaneously with Cushing, Oklahoma inventories that are now close to tank bottoms.
Rebuilding of these inventories has begun though, with the usual rise off the seasonal lows likely to be assisted by a return to normal output from the Canadian oil sands in Alberta.


OPEC may cancel April meet, but hold steady on oil output: Saudi energy minister

Saudi Arabia’s energy minister Khalid Al-Falih that April may be premature to make any production decision for the second half. (Reuters)
Updated 20 min ago
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OPEC may cancel April meet, but hold steady on oil output: Saudi energy minister

  • ‘As long as the levels of inventories are rising and we are far from normal levels, we will stay the course guiding the market toward balance’
  • ‘The consensus we heard ... is that April will be premature to make any production decision for the second half’

BAKU: OPEC and its non-OPEC partners need to reconsider if there is a need for a meeting in April, Saudi Arabia’s energy minister said on Monday, adding that there was no pressure from the United States to increase supply.
“We are not under pressure except by the market,” Khalid Al-Falih told reporters ahead of a meeting of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) in Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan.
“As long as the levels of inventories are rising and we are far from normal levels, we will stay the course guiding the market toward balance.”
The JMMC includes major oil producers Saudi Arabia and Russia and monitors the oil market and conformity levels with supply cuts.
“There is a consensus that has also emerged that no matter what, we should stay the course until the end of June.”
Asked whether he was updated on whether the United States administration would extend the waivers it granted to buyers of Iranian crude, which are due to end in May, Al-Falih said: “Until we see it hurting consumers, until we see the impact on inventory, we are not going to change course.”
The oil producers are due to meet next in April in Vienna, but Al-Falih said this may not happen.
“The consensus we heard ... is that April will be premature to make any production decision for the second half,” Al-Falih said.
“We may not have a meeting in April,” he said, adding that the JMMC may recommend this later on Monday.