Strong demand keeps oil prices rising

Offshore oil drilling platform ‘Gail’ operated by Venoco, Inc., is shown off the coast of Santa Barbara, California (File photo / AP)
Updated 29 September 2018
0

Strong demand keeps oil prices rising

RIYADH: Oil prices continued their upward momentum and the price of Brent crude rose to $82.72 per barrel. This was the first weekly closing above $80 since October 2014. West Texan Intermediate hit $73.25 per barrel. The Brent/Dubai spread widened to $9.47 per barrel by the week’s closing on Friday. The recovery in oil prices owes much to the strength of global oil demand.
When OPEC met in November 2014 and decided to change its market strategy, global oil demand was about 92 million barrels per day (bpd). It has now grown to nearly 100 million bpd, with crude inventories down below the five-year average.
For the first time since August 2014, predictions have begun on the return of oil to $100 per barrel. This is happening in an atmosphere of uncertainty as further output increases from OPEC are yet to materialize. At present, the market is not in need of any production hikes to compensate for the US sanctions on Iran’s oil exports.
Revising oil price forecasts higher could be rational, but the fundamental bullishness might be tempered by theoretical concerns over demand that have no strong argument of support. Inventory drawdowns continue and global oil demand has risen 7.5 million bpd since the end of 2014.
The fall in Iran’s oil output has yet to result in growth in OPEC’s output because the market supply/demand balance is still not in a supply deficit. This is why OPEC’s decision for an output increase will follow Iran’s output decline inversely for the rest of 2018. OPEC’s output is likely to rise in 2019 as needed.
Should output be increased now or is it still premature to ramp up production?
This is the question that every market analyst is considering. There are arguments that the oil market cannot be tight and yet well supplied at the same time. This is true. But although the market is tight, supply deficits haven’t materialized. For instance, all Saudi Aramco crude oil customers have been allocated their requested monthly crude oil shipments in their entirety. This is a strong sign that there is not a supply deficit in the market.
Additionally, the US has decided to sell 11 million barrels of oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). Deliveries are to take place in October and November. The US SPR currently stores 660 million barrels of oil in massive underground salt caverns. It is the world’s largest supply of emergency crude oil. March 2014 was the last time oil was released from the SPR on a test basis. That happened when oil prices were almost $30 per barrel higher than their current level. It is possible for the US President to decide to tap the US SPR to try to modulate oil prices for the first time, but many analysts believe such a move would be largely symbolic.
The release of 11 million barrels isn’t enough to make up Iran’s entire production but that might not be necessary. This week India confirmed that it will continue to import oil from Iran, albeit at a reduced rate. China has also reduced Iranian oil imports but continues to defend its energy trade with Tehran.
US President Trump could attempt to pressure India into a zero import position for Iranian oil, for without it his sanctions lack impact. However, efforts are under way by the EU, China and Russia to implement a barter system with Iran that will allow it to exchange oil for the imports it needs. OPEC is surely waiting to see just how much production is required before ramping up output.
Tapping the US SPR might not reduce oil prices amid the oil market tightness but instead further widen the Brent/WTI spread as a result of the difficulties facing shale oil producers in exporting their oil. This comes simultaneously with Cushing, Oklahoma inventories that are now close to tank bottoms.
Rebuilding of these inventories has begun though, with the usual rise off the seasonal lows likely to be assisted by a return to normal output from the Canadian oil sands in Alberta.


Philippines’ richest man Henry Sy dead at 94

Updated 19 January 2019
0

Philippines’ richest man Henry Sy dead at 94

  • Henry Sy had a net worth of $19 billion as of Friday, according to Forbes.com
  • Sy helped create mall culture in the Philippines

MANILA: The Philippines’ wealthiest man Henry Sy, who rose from being a penniless Chinese immigrant to leading a multi-billion dollar business empire, died on Saturday, his conglomerate has announced.
The 94-year-old, from the Chinese city of Xiamen, made his fortune with a Philippine shopping center conglomerate that has put up some of the largest malls in the world.
However his holdings also included banks, hotels and real estate in the Philippines, as well as shopping centers in China.
He had a net worth of $19 billion as of Friday, according to Forbes.com.
Forbes said he was the 52nd richest person in the world last year, beating out bold name tycoons like Elon Musk, Rupert Murdoch and George Soros.
“Henry Sy ... passed away peacefully in his sleep early Saturday morning. There are no further details at the moment,” his SM group said in a statement.
Sy put up his first shoe store in downtown Manila in 1956, a business which later grew into a diversified empire.
He stepped down as chairman of his holding firm in 2017, assuming the title of “chairman emeritus” and leaving trusted allies as well as his children in charge of his empire.
It was a long journey for a man who came to the Philippines as a boy to work in his immigrant father’s variety store.
“Our store was so small it had no back or second floor, we just slept on the counter late at night after the store was closed,” he told the Philippine Star newspaper in 2006.
After their shop was destroyed during World War II, Sy’s father returned to China but Henry chose to stay in the Philippines.
He got a commerce degree from a Manila university and started selling shoes in a shop which would later grow into a chain named “ShoeMart.”
By 1972, his shops had branched out into selling all manner of goods, prompting the name to be changed to SM Department Store.
But it was in 1985 that Sy made history when he opened his first “Supermall” in Manila.
Spanning over 424,000 square meters (4.6 million square feet), the mall included dozens of stores, numerous cinemas, restaurants, banks and other attractions that made it a one-stop shop for millions of Filipinos.
This was just the start, as more of Sy’s mammoth malls popped up across the country, some even containing ice skating rinks, a rarity in the tropical country.
Sy helped create mall culture in the Philippines, where steamy temperatures and the regular threat of torrential downpours can make outdoor shopping uncomfortable.
Sy’s holding company, SM Investments Corp. opened its first mall in China in 2001 and has been expanding there as well.
By 2018, SM said it had 70 malls in the Philippines and seven in China as well as six hotels and eight office buildings.
Sy’s empire has earned its share of criticism from labor groups, who say it uses thousands of contractual hires to avoid paying higher wages and benefits that permanent workers are entitled to.
SM officials have insisted that they do not engage in so-called “contractualization,” but say they hire “seasonal” workers for peak periods like Christmas, back-to-school and even weekends.