Montenegrin voters have returned the pro-independence coalition government of President Milo Djukanovic for a second term of office. Djukanovic had promised to hold an early referendum on a split with Serbia, a move which would bring about the final disintegration of the old Yugoslav Federation, leaving only Serbia to preserve the federal fiction if it wished. But the victory of the parties dedicated to independence has been an unexpectedly narrow one. This ought to cause the Djukanovic administration to think long and hard about the independence proposal that they will be put before voters in the referendum.
In the last four years of the Milosevic dictatorship in Serbia, Djukanovic asserted an ever greater degree of Montenegrin independence. Though that carried the danger of bloodshed, Djukanovic took the chance and it paid off, partly because the United States was quietly backing him. But America now has a new president who probably couldn’t find little Montenegro on a map and in Vojislav Kostunica, Serbia has a democratic president with whom the international community is eager to do business. If Montenegro’s independence meant the separation of an overwhelming Montenegrin majority from the rump of the Yugoslav Federation, there might still be international support, but there is a large minority who see themselves as Serbs, who could become the touch paper for yet more ethnic violence in the Balkans.
Having won a further term of office with a promise to refer the question of independence to the electorate, Djukanovic is going to have to hold the vote. But this need not provide the source for new Balkan tensions. Much will depend on the precise proposition that is put to the Montenegrins. If they are invited to go for outright independence, then the two factions in the republic are likely to be polarized. If, however, Djukanovic can demonstrate more of the statecraft of which he has proven himself capable, the decision voters could be invited to make could be for a truly autonomous republic within the old Yugoslav Federation. If the Serbian government can produce a formula which, for instance, gives Montenegro the right to opt out of certain federal decisions, then such autonomy could well pass for effective independence. It would, at the very least, overcome Montenegrin fears that they would continue to be dominated by the Serbs.
Today, Montenegro is only surviving economically thanks to foreign aid. Djukanovic has already been made aware that the aid would be reviewed if he sets himself on a collision course with Belgrade. The political problem that he faces is that having unleashed the enthusiasm of independence supporters, he could suffer a backlash if he fails to deliver an absolute break away from Belgrade. However,iIt appears that in Sunday’s parliamentary elections, Djukanovic’s coalition did not garner support from all middle-of-the-road Montenegrins. There is a core of these voters, who see continued union with Serbia as the only economically practical way forward.
Djukanovic has shown himself to be a pragmatist. Therefore, it must be hoped that the option offered in the “independence” referendum will be a sensible one.
