NEW DELHI — The fortunes of the three dominant women in Indian politics are on test in the May assembly elections. All three are out of power. All three are hungry for power.
The easiest fate to predict is that of Jayalalitha, the Revolutionary Leader. You don’t have to be an astrologer. You don’t even have to go to Tamil Nadu. You can sense the chemistry building up that will change a government.
The DMK ensured her return to office by putting her in jail. For the electorate that was tantamount to atonement for whatever sins she may have committed in office. The authorities ensured her victory by denying her a nomination from four assembly segments. This is just the kind of decision that infuriates an electorate, particularly when it is already angry against a ruling party.
Indira Gandhi’s return to power became certain when a foolish Janata Party government removed her from Parliament; the Janata MPs forgot that the people had the right to remove a whole Parliament from Parliament. The intricacies of the DMK’s case, if it has any, will be lost in the roar of protest in Tamil Nadu.
You can already hear that roar building up, even in the early stages of the campaign. The DMK has heard it, and the depression is visible on the faces of the DMK leaders. Nor can absence from the assembly prevents Jayalalitha from being sworn in if she wins the elections.
The technicalities are on her side. She can be sworn in without being elected, as Uttar Pradesh’s Rajnath Singh was, and remain chief minister for six months. If she wants to drive the system crazy (the system has driven her crazy, so why should she not return the compliment?) she can resign one day before her six-month term gets over, and then get reelected by her party and re-sworn in by the governor.
It has not been done before but Indian democracy is dotted with things that have not been done before. Has Mamata Banerjee, the Revolutionary Bleeder, peaked before the start of play? The wind has been in her favor for years; but is the last breeze before 10 May changing direction?
There is a delicious irony in the Bengal situation. The most committed support to the Communists is coming from the industrialists of the state, or at least from the few that are left there and still consider Calcutta their home. They are terrified at the prospect of chaos if the Marxists lose.
Part of the reason is implicit blackmail. No one wants the return of the kind of militant and violent trade unionism that drove industry out in the first place. Over the years the owners have made their peace with the unions on varying terms and they have no desire for fresh negotiations.
But there is more than the threat from CITU that worries. Mamata has pitched her politics at too high a decibel-level. While this may have been necessary in opposition, the pitch is unsuitable for governance. The non-leftists (you can’t call anyone in Bengal a rightist) have not helped their cause by indiscipline.
Ajit Panja is distraught at losing the comforts of Delhi for the variable pleasures of Calcutta. And our old friend Barkat Ghani Khan Choudhary merely has to open his mouth for controversy to float out.
Has Bengal simply got accustomed to a Marxist face? The relationship between the Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPM) and Bengal is a bit like an old marriage now. Squabbles and fights break out at the first opportunity, and there are always the temptations of bit on the side, but divorce is simply not the Bengali thing to do.
The CPM has also been intelligent enough to appreciate that the biggest enemy of any relationship is boredom. After more than two decades in power Jyoti Basu had staled in the job. It is now certain that Basu would have lost the election to Mamata; that impressive heroic figure of Bengal politics had simply lost interest in his job, as he was the first to admit privately.
His party understood these facts and introduced Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee at the right moment. The party changed the chief minister before the people changed the chief minister. Since Indian politics is run by leaders who treat their political parties as fiefdoms, this is unfamiliar. You cannot imagine a Sonia Gandhi or a Laloo Yadav or a Mulayam Singh Yadav or a Jayalalitha or, yes, a Mamata Banerjee placing their party’s interests above their own; in fact, they would be unable to distinguish the difference.
The CPM’s political integrity could be its saving grace. The operational word is “could”. Not will. Buddhadeb should have become chief minister even earlier, and given time to stir the layers of still life in Writers’ Building with the energy of at least one or two new ideas.
All he has on offer are promises. A promise is an uncertain crutch after nearly 25 year in power. The word is that the Marxists are considering ideas like the creation of special economic zones without existing labor laws, safe from orthodox attack because the model is Chinese.
The Marxists of course can do what they would never allow any other government to do. Then there is Sonia, the Evolutionary Pleader. She is always pleading for something or the other. These assembly elections were made for her to win; it is impossible to believe how or why the Congress party could lose anywhere.
The anti-incumbency mood is so strong now that it has buffeted even the center. Kerala is the old cakewalk for the Congress-led alliance; the Malayali is a fair voter, and believes in giving both sides a chance. This year it is A.K. Antony’s turn.
Assam should have been as easy for the Congress as Tamil Nadu is for Jayalalitha. There is unprecedented voter discontent against the AGP. The Congress could put up the traditional lampposts as candidates and win. Except that it did one better.
The Congress sold tickets. Literally. Money was paid and tickets were handed out. There were bidders because a Congress ticket is considered a passport to the assembly. The AICC became a pathetic bazaar in which the party symbol was sold to highest bidders. The anger in Guwahati at this brazen corruption and mismanagement has already been reported, but the party leaders could not care less since they do believe that this is going to be a lamppost election.
The Congress may yet win because of the anger against the Assam Gon Parishad (AGP), but the size of its victory will be significantly diminished. And although Congress leaders will never find the courage to say anything against any president publicly, they have no defense or explanation.
Discuss Assam and find an embarrassed Congressman. The opportunity is there. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government in Delhi has lost its élan; the BJP is going to be hammered wherever it is contesting. But the Congress is unable to occupy the space being vacated by the BJP because it is bridled by uncertain leadership and tainted by venality.
There is a tide in the affairs of three women. Jayalalitha will sail on Cleopatra’s golden barge. Mamata is drifting on the Hooghly, suddenly uncertain about her destination. Sonia is watching the tide from a bungalow on the river front.
