The British are, on the whole, a conservative nation. So when they go to the polls in today’s general election one outcome is certain: there will be a victory for conservatism. But not for the Conservatives. Just as in the US where Bill Clinton remolded the Democrats as a party of the center right, grabbing the Republicans‚ low-tax, low-spending policies, UK Prime Minister Tony Blair has for the past four years run his Labor government very much on policies lifted wholesale from his Conservative predecessors. Apart from constitutional change, his has not been a particularly radical government, not even a center-left one. Labor today is a right of center party; and that puts it in tune with much of the British electorate.
Blair deserves to win. He and Chancellor Gordon Brown have run the British economy exceedingly well. Of course, they inherited a sound economy from the Conservatives four years ago. But the important point is they have kept it in good order. They have not messed it up unlike every previous Labor administration. The British like that and so no reason for change, even though Blair and other leading Labor politicians are far from personally popular. There is, if anything, a strong feeling that Labor has become arrogant in power, and far too interested in manipulating public opinion. But people will still vote it. There is no alternative.
The Conservative party is a shambles: its leader has little charisma; his only distinctive policy (against the euro) bores people rigid; nor have they forgotten the sleaze of the last administration. They still distrust the Conservatives. Sufficient time has not yet passed for people to forget that. Tony Blair’s style may annoy the British but he is seen as a safe pair of hands. Other than a second Blair term, the only other certainly in today’s poll is a low turnout: the British public are not so much apathetic about the election as positively disinterested. Predictions of Labor winning even more seats than in the 1997 landslide might turn out to be true, if opinion polls are accurate, but that is a big “if”. And should it happen, Tony Blair will find it much more difficult controlling his backbenchers; they are likely to imagine themselves as political supermen, impervious to future defeat and will be looking for a great deal more radicalism on the part of the government.
As for talk of the Conservatives splitting afterward or of the Liberal Democrats emerging as the main opposition party, both would be remarkable. The Liberal Democrats are expected to make gains; they have had the best campaign, and could win seats from Labor as well as from the Conservatives. But not many more. As for the Conservatives splitting, it will take something bigger than a second election defeat to do that. There would have to be an issue over which the party is irrevocably divided. Much as Europe and the euro might seem to provide that issue, it will not happen.
Tony Blair’s campaign to take the UK into the Euro starts tomorrow. There will be a referendum in about a year’s time, which Labor, with its skills at manipulating public opinion, will certainly win, backed by the massed ranks of industry and business as well as the few remaining Conservatives that the public trust. Once that referendum is over, the Conservative Party will perform a U-turn, just as it did on the issue of Welsh and Scottish devolution. By the time the next election comes along, the euro will not longer divide it. However, there is no doubt a realignment of British politics is taking place. Labor are on the center right, the Conservatives have moved much further to the right, while the Liberal Democrats have occupied the ground to the left of Labor (although as yet lots of former Conservative voters supporting them today have not realized that). That is bound to have future consequences. It could make Labor the natural party of British government. But that is a speculation too far. For the moment, Labor can be satisfied with a second very creditable win.
