THE BREAKDOWN of talks aimed at ending the conflict in Macedonia is dangerous. What was a conflict between a militarily feeble but nonetheless still multiethnic government and a small but well-armed group determined on the country’s partition could now easily escalate into full-scale civil war between the two communities.
For that very reason, it is inexcusable of NATO to now put on hold its plans to send in peacekeeping forces. They are needed more than ever. What makes the decision all the more incomprehensible is that NATO’s Secretary-General Lord Robertson himself has warned of civil war resulting the fall-out between negotiators from the country’s two Macedonian and two Albanian political parties.
The Atlantic alliance is understandably concerned of being drawn into a conflict over which it has no control. But its insistence on a constitutional settlement before it sends peacekeepers to Macedonia shows a lamentable failure among its political leadership to learn the lessons of the Balkans’ immediate past.
Waiting for a political settlement on the ground is the policy that produced bloodbaths in Bosnia and Kosovo. There, delay and dither, largely by the Europeans and Americans, twice left the field free for months on end to Slobodan Milosevic to pursue his barbarous plans of genocide, occupation and ethnic-cleansing. It could happen again. With the Albanian quarter of the population resentful at being sidelined as a “minority”, Macedonia’s constitutional set-up had already rendered it unstable. Now it is powder keg. Macedonians are suspicious of Albanian intentions. Albanians, increasingly alienated at perceived injustices, suspect those of Macedonians’.
In such a tense situation, there is a real risk of both sides heading for the armory, especially as they know the official army is an ill-disciplined rabble, quite incapable of maintaining law and order. To leave Macedonia to the risk of civil war is an act of gross irresponsibility. It makes no political sense to stick to the original plan of sending in peacekeeping forces to disarm ethnic Albanian rebels, but only once the unrest has ended and a political deal struck. It is to be hoped that the Skopje talks can be reactivated; and NATO and the EU are doing their utmost to make that happen. But for the moment, NATO has to recognize that the situation has changed.
Whoever is responsible for the present breakdown of the talks, NATO cannot afford to allow a full-scale civil war. It may not like the idea of being involved in peacekeeping operations, but if that is the only alternative to war, then it surely has to be that.
Nor is it such a horrendous development. In many ways, enforced peacekeeping is precisely what NATO does in Kosovo. Moreover, if it sends in peacekeepers, the situation in Macedonia will not be without its control. It will be very much in charge. If it wished to, it would be quite capable of forcing Macedonia’s rebels to disarm, just as it has disarmed the KLA in Kosovo. And if anything, its presence on the ground would add to the pressure on the authorities to find a political solution. By sticking to its original plans, there is a risk of the situation sliding uncontrollably toward explosion. If that happens NATO will then have to move in and sort the matter out. Better to do it now and prevent another Balkan bloodbath.
