Until very recently the White House had hesitated to risk American prestige in Middle East diplomatic efforts which had no guarantee of success. But that the Tenet cease-fire is holding up is obviously encouraging the administration to take further peacemaking steps. Colin Powell will visit the region this week to build on the truce, improve security coordination and begin implementing the recommendations of the Mitchell commission which sketched out a plan to return to peacemaking. And when Israel Prime Minister Ariel Sharon visits the White House this week, George W. Bush will try to encourage him not only to stick to the cease-fire but move to the next phase of the diplomatic process as envisaged by the Mitchell commission.
Regardless of what Sharon says, the time is right to take steps toward a resumption of negotiations. Sharon wants a total halt before negotiations begin but the Bush team is not so unrealistic and will settle for a sharp decline in violence. Even during all the decades that Israel controlled the entire West Bank, there were sporadic incidents of violence and so a complete cessation of attacks now seems extremely difficult given the deep resentment toward Israel engendered by almost nine months of violence.
But Palestinians are not as concerned about when talks can begin as they are about Sharon being unwilling to enter into any negotiations. They are convinced he will be unable to implement the Mitchell report — which calls for a settlement freeze — and keep the right flank of his coalition. On the other hand, not implementing a freeze risks antagonizing Shimon Peres and the Labor Party. Either way, his days as prime minister could be shortened. Which is why most Palestinians are convinced Sharon will act to scupper the cease-fire long before the stage of Mitchell’s other recommendations is reached, if not directly, then courtesy of his followers in the settlement movement. It is not expected that Sharon will open a military campaign before he meets Bush. But many are afraid that the cease-fire is the lull after, not before, the storm and that another storm will come courtesy of Sharon.
Sharon’s use of force has won him applause from the most militant of Israel’s backers but serious criticism from most others. His only visible strategy is endless confrontation. This is probably because he cannot come close to the proposals made by Ehud Barak, much less to the formulations arrived at by the parties later in the talks in Taba, without risking his government. A final peace agreement must, therefore, await an Israeli government with a new and different mandate.
Few Palestinians and fewer Israelis believe the cease-fire will last. Violent incidents test the truce daily. But what had been a fragile cease-fire listed as day-to-day is slowly taking root. As a result, an eventual return to peace talks has again become a subject for serious discussion. But the cease-fire cannot be sustained unless the Palestinians are offered a viable alternative to the status quo.
Diplomacy offers no instant cure for the fever of the recent months but only if the United States — and Europe — keep the pressure up is there a strong chance that Palestinians and Israelis will slowly inch back from the battlefield to the negotiating table.
