Indonesia is very much in the news these days and always for the wrong reasons. Social unrest in this Southeast Asian country continued to chip away at consumer confidence in past months, state brokerage Danareksa said in its latest survey recently. The World Refugee Survey 2001, also released recently, added another dimension to the crisis facing this nation with a population of 210 million. According to this survey, an estimated 800,000 Indonesians were displaced by religious and ethnic violence last year, with almost half of them situated in the Moluccas.
Recently a powerful bomb blast in Jakarta wounded five people and police fired tear gas and beat students protesting a huge fuel price increase. This was the latest in a string of explosions that have rocked Indonesia in the past year.
Raising fuel prices have always been politically risky and help trigger riots. Quite normal in impoverished Third World countries. But unfortunately for Indonesia, some things which are not quite normal are also happening there.
For one thing, there is separatist turmoil at either end of this huge archipelago — in Aceh in the west and Irian Jaya to the east. Aceh, the oil-rich province on the northern tip of Sumatra island has been fighting for independence since the mid-1970s. More than 800 people have been killed in Aceh this year alone.
In the Moluccas, more than 5,000 people have been killed in a grisly war between Christian and Muslim residents that broke out in January 1999. Problems of this magnitude would have unnerved even a government enjoying a fair measure of popular support and relative stability. Unfortunately this is not the case with Indonesia. President Abdurrahman Wahid is battling efforts by the parliament to impeach him. A special session of the upper house has been scheduled for Aug. 1 to hear the president account for his rule including charges of corruption against him. A rejection of his account by the People’s Consultative Assembly (MPR) will mean an end to the rule of Indonesia’s first freely-elected head of state.
What we have here is a Philippines-like situation before Arroyo took over: A president facing impeachment and a vice president, also a woman and scion of a distinguished political family, waiting in the wings. Wahid has lost the support of almost every important constituency in Indonesia, including his Vice President Megawati Sukarnoputri, daughter of Indonesia’s founder President Sukarno.
There are widespread fears the president will take drastic action to stop the MPR from meeting. The Indonesian Defense Forces (TNI) have publicly warned Wahid against declaring a civil emergency and dissolving parliament to stave off impeachment. Wahid’s support stems from his former leadership of the Nahdlatul Ulama with more than 30 million members. A desperate president may unleash his supporters on the streets. And he has such zealous followers that they need no prodding. In the past demonstrations for and against Wahid have always turned violent. Wahid is nearly blind and has suffered two strokes. Nothing that has taken place during his 20-month rule has shown that he has any political or leadership qualities to compensate for these physical infirmities. Neither has he shown any inclination to resign or delegate powers to his vice president. Herein lies a recipe for a disaster.
