The abrupt collapse of the Agra summit between Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee and Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf was not altogether surprising. Analysts had argued that it was hopelessly optimistic to expect a breakthrough — particularly over Kashmir — given the long and bitter history of the two sides’ rivalry and the fact neither of the leaders was strong enough to make concessions that would be perceived by their respective constituencies as climb downs.
Nevertheless, one-to-one summits, where two heads of government meet and chew over common problems, can have remarkable results if the personal chemistry between them is right. In just a matter of hours of face-to-face meetings, they can cut through age-old disputes and thrash out solutions that no amount of diplomacy could achieve.
And the signs are that the chemistry between Musharraf and Vajpayee is good. Before the summit abruptly ended, the two seemed to be getting on fine. They spent several hours talking together. Vajpayee himself agreed that the talks went well.
India and Pakistan have everything to gain by burying the hatchet once and for all. And more important, as nuclear powers, they have everything to lose if relations get so bad as to result in another war. Time is on neither’s side. A fresh conflict could too easily happen — which is what makes this failure worrying. There have been enough wars between the two already. At least, until now though, neither had the nuclear button to push. Now that they have that appalling facility, it would be naive to imagine that they would have the courage to refrain from using it in some future conflict.
Even before they became members of the nuclear club, Pakistan and India were major world players, contributing to peacekeeping operations in a number of countries; their views on almost any matter rightly command international attention. Further, both of them have peoples who have more down-to-earth problems that need attention: hunger, disease, unemployment and every other form of misery, including the lack of even drinking water. Given all that, plus the nuclear matter, both the nations have a responsibility to find a way out of the dead-end street history and politicking have pushed them to. However, it is going to take time to sort out their differences over Kashmir.
It is encouraging that the collapse has not been accompanied by a wave of mutual recriminations. The efforts of Delhi and Islamabad to play down their difference over Kashmir and the failure of the summit can be taken as a sign that they would like to have another go; and soon. The danger is that domestic opinion may not let them if they leave it too long. Hard-liners, unhappy at the idea of any détente with the “enemy”, have already started making threatening noises. The best way to sideline them is by a firm commitment to find common ground between Delhi and Islamabad; and the best way of that is an announcement that the invitation extended to, and accepted by, Vajpayee to visit Pakistan will mean a second summit.
If that happens and if both the nations begin there their walk to peace, history may record this summit as an outstanding success.
