The violence in Spain’s Basque country has long appeared insoluble. The terrorist organization ETA, determined to blaze a bloody path to independence for Europe’s oldest nation, has time and again shown utter disdain for any appeal to cease its murderous campaign. Its response at the beginning of last year, when over a million Spaniards marched to protest its decision to end its earlier cease-fire, was to embark on yet more bombings and assassinations. Not all that surprising given ETA’s contempt for any request that comes in the name of Spain. But just how evil ETA is was seen after May’s general elections for the autonomous Basque parliament, when its political wing, Euskal Herritarrok, was trounced. Far from accepting the popular verdict, it intensified its killing campaign.

The party that won, the Basque Nationalist Party (PNV), not only works within the Spanish federal system, but is deeply conservative. It is a conservatism that springs from a determination to maintain traditional Basque values and ways — which explains why it is deeply nationalist as well. It has run the autonomous province for 20 years. But it is only now that its nationalism could represent a challenge to Spain.

The president of the Basque government, Juan Jose Ibarretxe, is widely reported to have plans for a referendum in two years’ time on whether or not the Basque country should have greater autonomy, and which might or might not involve independence. It is difficult to know whether Ibarretxe really wants to change the current constitutional position or whether he sees a referendum as a necessary means of bringing peace to the Basque country. He is certainly interested in that.

On May’s general election showing, well over half the Basque electorate supported nationalism of one form or other. If independence were on the ballot paper in a couple of years’ time and the PNV supported it, there is a good chance that it would succeed. The big plus is that it would then be politically impossible for ETA to continue its terrorist activities since independence is its goal. Whether or not ETA would pay any attention is another matter: its furious reaction to being rejected in the ballot box in May suggests it would not. In other words, a referendum might not make an ounce-worth of difference to ETA’s pursuit of violence, although it would probably help further dry up support for it.

The Madrid government’s response to Ibarretxe’s ideas has been predictably negative. But then it too is conservative and does not want to see Spain fall apart; further autonomy for the Basque country is bound to result in similar demands by Catalonia. Nonetheless, it is wrong to warn that a referendum campaign would lead to greater tension in the Basque country. Regionalism, complemented by greater unity at the European level, is in vogue across Europe. Look at Scotland, Wales and, most recently, Corsica. Their autonomy has not led to the disappearance of the UK or France. Autonomy is not something to be feared. For the sake of Spain, which has not been able to end the violence, as well as of the Basques, every avenue needs to be explored to bring about a lasting peace.

Ibarretxe is at least making an effort. He deserves to be encouraged.