President Gloria Arroyo of the Philippines has demonstrated diplomatic skills so lacking in her predecessor, Joseph Estrada, by concluding a cease-fire agreement with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), the main group that has been fighting for a self-governing Muslim state in the south of the predominantly Roman Catholic country.
Where Estrada had sought to use a big stick to crush the rebels with an all-out offensive, which past experience should have told the Philippines military would be abortive, President Arroyo has used thought and care. She has allowed the Malaysian government to play the facilitator to bring the two sides to the negotiating table. She laid the groundwork for this process by declaring this February a unilateral cease-fire by government forces, which prompted the MILF to follow suit a month later. This week’s agreement formalizes that deal and opens the way for substantive talks on the future of the Muslim people in Bangsamoro homeland in Mindanao and neighboring islands.
The MILF, with reportedly over 12,000 fighters, now finds itself alongside the Moro National Liberation Front, from which it split in 1977. The only rebels still committed to armed action are in the much smaller extremist group Abu Sayyaf, which has been responsible for the recent wave of kidnappings, principally of tourists. It is now imperative that the MILF and the MNLF use their good offices to persuade the Abu Sayyaf to join in the cease-fire. This has been a terrible struggle, which has created at least 200,000 refugees and cost countless lives.
President Arroyo has made it clear that it will be less costly to make peace than to continue the vain military struggle against resourceful and determinedopponents. One of her first acts on the signing of the cease-fire was to announce an economic aid program for the south, which will hopefully start to restore the ravaged region. The government in Manila has indicated that there are no preconditions to the talks. But realistically speaking, complete independence for the country’s Muslim reason would not be politically easy for the government, or economically feasible for the Muslims.
Like so many other such conflicts around the world, this one, which began over 30 years ago, came about because a minority found itself socially and economically disadvantaged in the brave new world of independence. Muslims became convinced that they were being treated as second-class citizens. The message of Arroyo’s initiative is that the government is prepared to address the real issues. Few doubt the genuineness of her belief that a lasting settlement must be reached, for the sake of all the Philippines. But there are still dark forces in Manila that would like the oppressive fight against the Muslims to continue. Seizing this moment to reach a just and fair settlement, therefore, becomes even more important for the Muslims. The Philippines is still politically volatile and Arroyo’s successor might not have the same insightful purpose.
The people of the southern Philippines have suffered enough. Everybody, including the outside world and particularly the United States, must strain every sinew to ensure that the negotiations have a successful outcome.
