While the eyes of the world are focused elsewhere, Macedonia seems to be about to try and welsh on its deal to bring the Albanian uprising to an end. Macedonia’s Albanian rebels agreed to hand over their arms and to disband in return for an agreement by the government to end generations of ethnic discrimination. Against all the odds, the deal, brokered by the European Union worked, in so far that the rebels did indeed hand over a large quantity of weapons to a foreign disarmament contingent. Further, last week, the rebel commanders announced that since there had been assurances of an amnesty, they were disbanding their force and returning to their homes.
Unfortunately, the Macedonians have not been keeping their side of the bargain. Important constitutional amendments that would give Macedonians of Albanian extraction much, but not all of what they wanted in the way of increased rights, are still stuck in parliament. Worse, the amnesty which the rebels have been encouraged by European Union negotiators to accept as a done deal, still has not been ratified by Macedonian legislators.
The Macedonian government has chosen to drag its feet, perhaps to allow the arrival of a groundswell of public opposition to the constitutional changes and the amnesty. And indeed, that is what is now happening, with angry demonstrations against ethnic Albanian Macedonians. The Macedonian authorities are very likely hoping that the tense international situation will suit their obduracy. They were much encouraged by reports that the Kosovo Liberation Army, the dominant force across the border, had close links with Bin Laden’s terrorist network.
Even if this proves to be untrue, it is a gift for the Macedonians, who are already protesting that the revelations of Bin Laden links put a completely new perspective on the deal done with Albanian rebels of the NLA. Skopje would dearly love the Americans to expand on their suspicions of Bin Laden links and begin to move against the Albanians. Were that to happen, the Macedonian government would announce that the peace deal was off, and look to the US and its allies to crack down on what they would seek to characterize as an Albanian branch of the Bin Laden terrorist network.
It is, however, a risky and dishonest strategy. The risk clearly is that all that has been achieved by international negotiation will be thrown away and there will be the same brutal ethnic maelstrom as Bosnia and Kosovo. Fortunately, the European Union is apparently having none of such maneuvering. It has announced the postponement of an international donor’s conference for Macedonia, scheduled to take place in ten days time. European officials have also reacted angrily to Macedonian plans to send heavily armed police into former rebel areas of the country. Though the peace deal did include provisions for the return of normal policing, that was supposed to happen when the situation had become normal. That is certainly not the case at the moment.
The EU is, therefore, right to have acted decisively by holding off the aid conference. The Macedonian government made a deal. Their counterparts in the Albanian community have already done all that was asked of them. There should be no more delay. Skopje must deliver.
