It may seem premature to talk about any future government of Afghanistan. However, it is an issue that must be faced. It has to be only a matter of time before the Taleban’s grip on the bulk of the country will be broken. What then?
While he was in Islamabad last weekend for talks with Pakistani President Musharraf, British Prime Minister Tony Blair said that a new Afghan government had to represent all elements of Afghan society. He also said that it had to take into account the interests of Pakistan. The latter comment was designed specifically to mollify those in the Pakistani military and intelligence services who have until now maintained the closest links with the Taleban and who want to continue doing so. They regard Afghanistan as Pakistan’s strategic depth and they fear it being used as a springboard against the country.
Meanwhile to the north, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan have been assured by the US that any future Afghan government will take their interests into account. They certainly have reasons for wanting a friendly government in Kabul. Both were until very recently destabilized by Taleban-backed militants and there are significant Tajik and Uzbek minorities in Afghanistan. Not only does the Northern Alliance draw its support from them, they have also increasingly been the object of an overtly racist campaign by the largely Pashtun-based Taleban which has sought to drive them from their homes and lands, promising them instead to those Pashtuns who will fight to defend the regime.
The idea that any future government in Kabul must reflect the interests of neighboring states starts out on the wrong foot. It is the interests of the Afghans that must come first — all of them, regardless of ethnicity. Of course, no future government can afford to pursue policies inimical to any of its neighbors. But first and foremost, Afghanistan must never again be a puppet whose strings are pulled by others — be they neighbors or further afield. It will only lead to yet more civil war. Afghanistan’s fundamental problem has been too much interference from outside; its tribal divisions have succumbed to it.
It is no wonder that so many Afghans now look to the possibility of a return by exiled King Zahir Shah, as a medium-term solution, with such hope. Ever since he was overthrown in 1973, the country has known no peace — and it is peace that Afghans long for. They know that he provides the best means to national unity. A member of the majority Pashtun community, he is highly respected and revered, and is in no way tainted with three decades of disaster. There is also widespread acceptance of his proposal to call an assembly of tribal chief and elders, a Loya Jirga, which would then decide a new constitution for the country. Outsiders may say that this is to allow tribalism back into the driving seat in Afghanistan, but that is to willfully misunderstand the nature of Afghan society. The country is tribal. It is what Afghans understand and accept. It is their way. What the old monarchy did was to keep the excesses of tribalism in check. It is since it was overthrown that it has spun out of control. The King’s return, as a facilitator, provides the best hope of turning back the clock and ending three decades of misery.
