The breakneck speed at which the Taleban has collapsed in Afghanistan has surprised many, not least those in Washington and Islamabad with a direct interest in events there. It should not have. The Taleban maintained power by terror, by buying the loyalty of Pashtun tribes and because Afghans thought that no one was strong enough to overthrow the regime. It should have been realized that once the myth of its invincibility cracked with the fall of Mazar-i-Sharif, the whole edifice would come quickly tumbling down.
It is cause for considerable concern, then, that despite all the international coalition’s talk about the need for a broad-based government to replace the Taleban, it has allowed itself to be outrun by military events. The political process has moved far too slowly. That is bad planning. The result is that with the fall of Kabul, Islamabad’s worst-case scenario — a takeover by the anti-Pakistan Northern Alliance — could become a reality.
Everything depends on whether the northerners opt to try and hold onto power in the capital now that they have captured it. That could be potentially disastrous. Any return to the violence and political infighting of 1992-1993 when they last held sway in the capital would inevitably mean more civil war. Pakistan might even feel the need to intervene directly.
What is needed now is the immediate return of King Zahir Shah, the only person who can provide a symbol of national unity, and the establishment by him of an interim government. As the Taleban crumbles at breakneck speed, a political vacuum is developing. That vacuum may excuse the Northern Alliance for going back on its promise not to enter Kabul: law and order has to be maintained. But if the king does not return promptly, the opportunity to create a government acceptable to all sections of society and thus end the years of war once and for all could be lost. There have to be some a quick political moves; otherwise, the Northern Alliance will fill the vacuum by default, even if it does not want to.
For the moment — but only for the moment — that possibility is unlikely. The alliance appears to be a very different creature to the one that wrecked such havoc in the country last time it held power. Any looting that has occurred in the cities taken by it appears largely to be the work of local criminals taking advantage of the situation. For its part, it is showing hitherto unseen restraint — although there are worrying reports of captured Taleban fighters being summarily executed, especially foreign supporters. The main reason for some cautious optimism that the Northern Alliance will stick to its promises and support the return of the king is that its wants continued American backing. The one certain outcome of this war, providing that it ends in a seemingly lasting peace, is that Afghanistan is going to be flooded with aid — in particular US aid. Northern Alliance leaders know that by contributing to a wider political solution they are going to do very well in future. They will not want to put that, or their potential reputation as the their country’s saviors, at risk.
The conditions for a lasting peace exist. But it all depends on the king’s return and the immediate establishment of an interim government. Delay could be fatal.
