We are now confronted with an important human issue: The Afghan crisis. Who is going to take over power in that war-torn country?

The recent developments in Afghanistan are akin to what happened following the Soviet Union’s withdrawal from that hapless, landlocked country. The seven factions struggling for power are repeating themselves. A civil war ended their rule, led to the Taleban victory and takeover of the country. Pakistan was instrumental for both the victory of the Taleban and defeat of the Afghani factions we now know as Northern Alliance.

An international conference is to begin in Bonn tomorrow under the auspices of the Untied Nations. All the Afghani parties are attending the conference which will discuss the formation of a broad-based government. The new government is to replace the Taleban, then hold general elections within two or three years.

This conference was supposed to be held in Peshawar early to discuss the same matters but failed to materialize on account of inadequate preparations and disagreement of the parties involved.

In fact, the Afghan issue isn’t something that can be solved at this point of time. For instance, the Northern Alliance walked into Kabul a few days ago against the wishes of Washington. Moreover, Russians extended arms and military support to the Northern forces adding to the annoyance of the Untied States.

Former president of Afghanistan, Burhanuddin Rabbani, who was overthrown by the Taleban has returned to Kabul claiming that he is the legitimate president. This dashes any hope of the former King Sahir Shah returning to power. This move is welcomed by Pakistan.

Therefore, the formation of a new government will face too many obstacles. Such are the disagreements and conflicts among the Afghan factions. The United States, for example, wants a government that would protect its interests and ensures its permanent presence in Central Asia. However, the four neighbors of Afghanistan — Russia, China, Pakistan and Iran — don’t want this. There is also the danger of civil war breaking out anytime because of factional struggle within the Northern Alliance.

Adding to the discomfiture of the US and the UK is the fact that none of the the Afghan factions, whatever may be their differences over other matters, want foreign troops on their soil.

Russia will not accept a continuous US presence at its borders, so would use the tribes loyal to Moscow to fight any Afghan government that supports a US presence. The Russian politicians have made it clear that only Rabbani should head a post-Taleban government in Afghanistan.

China is opposed to any US presence on its western boarders and China’s president has made it clear that any future government in Afghanistan must include all the factions including moderates from the Taleban.

Iran also would not keep quiet as any pro-US government in Kabul is considered a threat to Iran’s national security. This fear is justified because a military presence in Afghanistan will enable the US to get around Iran from east and west as the US has a presence in the Arabian Gulf.

Now there is the Pakistani factor. Islamabad supported and encouraged the Taleban in the past and the recent developments have forced Pakistan to mend its fences with Northern forces, the enemies of yesterday. Pakistan has now joined hands with Russia in welcoming the return of President Rabbani thus closing the door for the former king Washington would like to be the head of the new government. The struggle for power in Afghanistan proves that the strong will prevail. So the government that is to emerge out of the Bonn conclave would be pro-Washington. The US, in turn, will have to oversee and support any future government in order to ensure its stability.

Some experts believe that there would be a permanent American presence in Afghanistan or at least an international military presence under the auspices of the United Nations. This is a very sensitive issue to the Afghani people in general and could be a major cause for the resumption of civil war. The Taif conference ended the Lebanon civil war. Can we expect such an outcome from the Bonn deliberations?