According to Washington, the arrival of US Marines at Kandahar airport is part of the endgame in the campaign against the Taleban and Al-Qaeda. Taleban leader Mulla Muhammad Omar and Osama Bin Laden are thought to be "contained" in the Kandahar area. It is expected that the US troops will be used as an air-mobile force to cut off and capture them, should they seek to flee. It must be hoped that Washington is right. Far from being an endgame, the arrival of regular US troops in the theater could be the start of a whole new conflict.
Thus far, the Americans have played a relatively astute hand. Their Special Forces have been operational in Afghanistan along with the British SAS, but have apparently become engaged in no major action. The sole exception was the abortive raid on Oct. 20 by the elite US Delta Force on the compound in Kandahar believed to be used by Mulla Omar. According to the US magazine, the New Yorker, the raid was "botched" and the 100-strong force was inserted into the area so ineptly, that Taleban forces were able to regroup and launch a counterattack. At least twelve US troops were injured and the operation apparently came perilously close to disaster.
It is perhaps significant that this time Washington is using a regular force of up to 2,000 Marines, which has established the forward operational base at Kandahar airport. The plan may now be for elite Special Forces troops to operate from this base.
However, as the British Marines have discovered in occupying Kabul airport, by no means all the different factions that make up the Northern Alliance welcome the presence of foreign troops on their soil. Northern Alliance Foreign Minister Abdullah Abdullah has made it clear that he has received assurances from Washington that the arrival of US ground forces was only part of the current campaign against terror. He has gone on to warn that the presence of foreign forces for any other objective could become a sensitive issue. That is probably an understatement.
The Bonn talks about the future governance of Afghanistan may be starting with low-level representation from all the different parties, but they are a key ingredient to any hope of a long-term peaceful settlement. As the situation on the ground stabilizes and when the Taleban are finally dislodged from Kandahar and the surrounding Pashtun region, the different Afghan parties will be able to turn their attention more fully to the Bonn negotiations.
Ironically, the one thing that would seem sure to unite them would be any suggestion that the final settlement will need to be overseen by foreign troops. The Americans and British must take care that their presence in the country really is only concerned with the capture and rolling up of the Al-Qaeda network and the overthrow of their Taleban hosts. There can be no question of a creeping mandate.
Despite the operational advantage of keeping their aims ambiguous, the US and British need to start giving clear assurances that their physical presence on Afghan soil is extremely short term. If they fail in this, the consequences could be a whole new conflict.
