With the media’s focus almost exclusively on Afghanistan, events in the rest of the world seem to have become, in a manner of speaking, non-news. That is why the world has not heard much about the recent developments in Nepal. For the last four months it has enjoyed an uneasy peace. Last August, the six-year insurrection by Maoists, which has claimed approaching 2,000 lives, was suspended with a truce and negotiations began between the elected government and the insurgents. The talks were never going to be easy. The Maoists wanted nothing less than the abolition of the Nepalese monarchy and the creation of a Communist state, which in their view, would then become the base for the spread of a Maoist revolution throughout the rest of Southeast Asia.
Observers, however, hesitated to write the negotiations off immediately. One key cause for hope was that Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba had been elected this July on a platform which committed him to find a negotiated peace with the Maoists. He thus enjoyed a political mandate that previous governments did not have. Indeed, previous governments had almost invariably refused to even think about talks. Deuba has used all his authority in an attempt to persuade the Maoists that they should leave aside the gun and embrace the ballot box. His stand has been that the Maoists should test their popularity before the electorate and give up their campaign of terror and intimidation. But in the end, the notion proved too much for the Maoists to grasp. Incapable of compromise, they withdrew from the talks and recommenced their campaign of violence, attacking army and police posts. They may have expected that the return to violence would drive Deuba back to the conference table. If that was their assessment, they appear to have made a terrible mistake.
In a demonstration that he did not initiate the peace talks out of weakness, the premier has unleashed the armed forces, better trained and equipped than the police, upon the Maoists in their hideouts. Unconfirmed reports suggest that a number of senior Maoist leaders have been killed or captured and heavy casualties inflicted among their followers. Diplomatic reports say that though Deuba began his administration with an olive branch, he is having no problem turning it into a big stick now that his peace proposals have been spurned.
It is also suggested that this time, the Nepalese authorities may be better prepared to deal with the terrorists. There are rumors that for some months, US and British security advisers have been working closely with the Nepalese forces to improve their training and equipment. There is some evidence that the terrorists have been receiving limited support from China. Beijing’s interest can only extend as far as destabilizing a neighbor. The last thing it would want would be a truly Maoist state next door. But because of Beijing’s meddling, or even simply because it is suspected of interfering, India, China’s regional rival, has felt itself obliged to enter into the picture.
It is to be hoped that Beijing and Delhi, realizing the dangers of a confrontation, would back off and leave the Nepalese government and its police and armed forces to deal with the terrorists.
