For the past 54 years, since the partition of the subcontinent, the relationship between India and Pakistan has been informed by a mutual incomprehension which has, at times, seemed to be willful. An astonishing demonstration of this lack of comprehension was the revelation last week that the hot line that both these nuclear powers had agreed to set up two years ago has never been implemented. Therefore, as the tension rises between Islamabad and New Delhi, there is no way that the two governments can contact each other urgently to explain and defuse a misunderstanding, which could be the trigger for one side or the other to launch a nuclear attack.
According to a leading Indian academic who studies conflict resolution, this essential hotline link had not been set up as agreed, because neither side was prepared to take the initiative. This paralysis of will is illustrative of that incomprehension which now makes the rising crescendo of saber rattling so dangerous. Political brinkmanship is all very well, but those who play such a dangerous game must always be sure that there is a clearly defined path, back from the brink. On the face of it, that route from the abyss does not exist for Pakistan and India.
The Indian government is seeking to extract the maximum leverage from the attack on its Parliament. The chance to isolate Kashmiri militant groups seems too good to pass up. New Delhi has calculated that there is unlikely to be a better chance to act. It believes that Washington’s international anti-terrorist campaign can be finessed to include Kashmir’s insurgents.
However, in order to thrust the issue onto the international agenda, the Indians have resorted to a highly dangerous level of bellicosity. Despite President Musharraf’s announced willingness to act against the Kashmiri militants and his preparedness to talk any time and any place to the Indian government, New Delhi has continued to ratchet up the pressure, yesterday spurning the talks offer and vowing to crush terrorism.
This is not the way. It is important that India begins substantive negotiations. It has to accept that a just settlement must reflect the wishes of the Kashmiris. India has also to accept that, as President Bush has pointed out, the record of its own security forces in the battle with the militants has not been blameless. Now is the time to admit that neither side has clean hands over Kashmir but the talking must begin. Lasting peace can only be achieved at the negotiating table, where both sides sit down. Many Indians are becoming increasingly uneasy at their government’s belligerence toward Pakistan. For certain, the government and people of Pakistan do not want war.
It would seem, therefore, a matter of the highest urgency to establish that hot line between Islamabad and New Delhi. If there is a technology issue, then the Americans ought to be able to jet in and set up a reliable high-security satellite link very quickly. They could also provide the established protocols that were generally effective between Moscow and Washington during the 50 years of the Cold War.
First, these two countries should start talking to each other about not going to war. Then the intercourse should move rapidly to formal and serious talks to hammer out an enduring peace. The brinkmanship must stop.
