Zambia is an economic mess. Under Kenneth Kaunda, its first President, it prospered modestly, largely from the high-grade production of its copper mines. However as a primary producer, it was vulnerable to the international collapse in the price of copper. Agricultural production, meanwhile, was hit by a series of devastating droughts.
His chosen successor Frederick Chiluba, however, did nothing to reverse the economic decline, which has seen 80 percent of the population drop below the poverty line. Chiluba won a second term of office in elections which were widely seen as rigged. The same accusations have been made about the latest presidential vote, which has seen the narrow victory of Chiluba’s nominee, Levy Mwanawasa.
Opposition politicians have tried and failed to have the result overthrown in the courts. Now Zambia is poised on the edge of political instability. The new president has asserted that he will be his own man, but many hold that Frederick Chiluba will continue to exert power from behind the scenes.
In his farewell speech, the outgoing president started off by insisting that this would not be the case, but then let slip his intention to intervene in the government of the country, if ever he felt that his help was needed. Since Chiluba remains president of the ruling MMD party, it seems almost certain that he will continue to exert a decisive influence on the governance of his country. This is not the way that it should be. Zambia has troubles enough without adding political instability to them. The example of Robert Mugabe’s ruinous rule in Zimbabwe to the south ought to warn Zambia’s longtime rulers of the disaster that could await them.
If Mwanawasa’s victory was legitimate, then he should acknowledge that it was nevertheless a very narrow one. He won with just over 29 percent of the popular vote, as against 27 percent for his main rival, Anderson Mazoka. His presidential oath enjoins him to serve all Zambians and that is what he must do. He must reach out to the leading opposition party, the UPND, and its leader Mazoka and seek to form a political consensus. Unless Mwanawasa can distance himself from his predecessor and reverse the discredited postcolonial policies that have brought Zambia to this present crisis, his term of office will be chaotic and probably short. Next must come a clearing out of the bureaucrats and party hacks, whose corruption and inefficiency have robbed Zambia of the few economic chances it ever had. In their place should be a government that embraces all interests and political parties within the country. This arrangement will encourage the participation of foreign investors and governments in rebuilding the shattered economy.
Anything less than such a decisive break with the past will leave Zambia drifting into increasingly dangerous political seas. Civil unrest could very well lead to armed rebellion and repression, further undermining what is left of the country’s prosperity. If Mwanawasa really is, as he says, his own man with his own vision for Zambia, now is the time to demonstrate it, by cutting himself off from his country’s chaotic economic and political past.
