Some experts believe that the next target in the US war against terrorism will be Pakistan, rather than Iraq or Somalia. The reasons are that the remains of the Taleban and Al-Qaeda network must be eliminated. Neither Bin Laden nor Mulla Muhammad Omar have been captured. In addition, other key Al-Qaeda members have also escaped.
Secret US reports indicate that Pakistan is the destination for Taleban and Al-Qaeda. Military experts confirm that the Afghan-Pakistan borders are not easy to monitor or control. There is also information about the traditional relations between tribes in southern Pakistan and the Taleban leaders.
Other US experts claim that Pakistan’s intelligence service played a major role in the disappearance of Bin Laden, Mullah Omar and others. The influence of Pakistani intelligence in those areas is strong as the tribes are either fundamentalists or Pashtuns.
The pressure on President Musharraf is evident. Though his military is on high alert, he agreed to meet Indian officials and to take a tough stance against certain groups. He also froze the funds of some of them and restricted their activities. In addition, the president imposed more security measures on the borders to deter infiltrators from Afghanistan. These steps by Pakistan were taken to decrease the tension with India following the attack on the Indian Parliament.
In fact, Pakistan’s internal crisis is a serious one. The crisis escalated following the arrest of key factional leaders and groups. The assassination of a brother of the federal interior minister and a car explosion in Karachi indicate a tense situation between the government and the opposition. At the same time, Pakistan is trying to clarify the constitutional situation. The Supreme Court in Islamabad has ordered that elections must be held not later than October to restore democracy.
As a result, the situation in Pakistan is not stable now, and is unlikely to be in the immediate future. It is made worse by India’s continuing belligerency. Pakistan’s nuclear capability is unacceptable to Washington as it is considered to be an Islamic bomb. The US position on Pakistan’s nuclear capability is firm especially after Sept. 11.
Moreover, the US is keen to have access to China from the west and so relations with India have improved. This is strategically important, as the US wants India to be its first line of defense against China. China’s strong ally, Pakistan, however, opposes the policy.
I believe that conflicts with fundamentalists and religious groups in Pakistan will not allow Washington to stay long in the region. US designs on, and plans for, Caspian Sea oil reserves are well-known regardless of whatever is claimed by the US. Pakistan might thus accept stronger pressure to abandon its nuclear capability for stability and the freezing of the Kashmir issue with India. The situation might become clearer if Washington stated its position concerning Pakistan in the near future. This has to be addressed by Washington as the military mission is virtually over even if the US has a different perception.
