KARACHI, 5 April — With the approval of the referendum plan by the joint sitting of the federal Cabinet and National Security Council on Wednesday, the political temperature has suddenly risen. This is going to be a long, hot summer in Pakistan. For the moment, the referendum that President Gen. Pervez Musharraf is to hold to legitimize his continuation as the president for five years after October’s general elections is the most sizzling issue. There is no doubt about the outcome of the referendum. But the real measure of the unfolding situation is that a victory foretold is also making President Musharraf’s position more vulnerable. And at the same time that he must contend with new challenges at the domestic front, the image of the military ruler abroad may also have diminished.
Many observers have been surprised by the passion that the government is investing in mobilizing popular support for President Musharraf because this exercise is bound to energize the political sector and allow opponents of the present establishment to counter the move. On Tuesday, an alliance of religious parties rejected the plan and termed it an unconstitutional way to stretch presidential rule in the country. A press conference held in Islamabad brought together all the leading religious leaders who, naturally, are incensed by the shift in government’s policies after Sept. 11. They also decided to stage demonstrations against Israel today and this shows how they intend to muster popular support.
At the same time, the adversarial relationship that has developed between President Musharraf and the mainstream political parties of the two former prime ministers is gaining intensity and their possible association with the religious lobby could generate considerable political disquiet in the country. If the government resorts to strong measures to suppress these factions, its image would suffer and doubts would be cast on the transparency of not just the referendum but also the October elections.
What makes these issues really complicated is the essential strength of President Musharraf as a credible and rational leader in times of acute crisis. It would be fair to assume that he has the support of an impressive majority of the people. It would also be easy to imagine that the assemblies elected in October would be willing to give him the mandate he is now seeking through a referendum, with the assistance of appropriate arrangements with some leading political parties.
But President Musharraf obviously wants to strengthen his position before the elections so that he has an upper hand over the new Parliament.
As some critics have noted, the decision to go for a referendum is founded on the assumption that there will inevitably be a tussle between a military president and an elected Parliament. In that sense, President Musharraf is aiming to pre-empt the Parliament’s authority. This approach will make it difficult for parties and groups that profess a commitment to democracy to openly support the referendum.
In any case, the great task of the government would be to bring out the voters in a referendum in which there is only one candidate. Gen Zia-ul-Haq’s referendum in 1984 will always be remembered for an abysmally small turnout, irrespective of the doctored result. As it is, even the hotly contested elections in Pakistan’s recent history have recorded a declining turnout, mainly because of people’s lack of trust in their leaders. In Gen. Zia’s non-party elections in 1985, the turnout was 54 percent but in 1997, when Nawaz Sharif won with a landslide, the turnout was only 36 percent. Analysts wonder how President Musharraf can attract a large turnout and this would naturally impair the credibility of the exercise.
Irrespective of the numbers game, the referendum will surely have consequences and observers are not certain about their impact on Pakistan’s close security relationship with the United States and other Western countries. According to published reports, some Western diplomats have suggested that the warmth in security ties in the context of war against terrorism should not be taken as unqualified support for President Musharraf’s political devices to stay in power.
It has been suggested that though President Musharraf still retains considerable Western support, controversies surrounding the referendum and a return to civilian rule after October could ignite criticism from the industrialized world, including the US. Already, it seems that the honeymoon is over. A number of critical articles and editorials have appeared in the Western print media during the past week. Critics have blamed the US for allowing President Musharraf to get away with less than he should be doing to justify US support.
Finally, the desire of the Western supporters of the present regime to ensure the continuity of reforms introduced by President Musharraf cannot totally offset the universal requirement for a democratic dispensation. If the rulers of Pakistan deviate from the norms of democracy, the stigma of military’s intervention in the political affairs will become more and more unacceptable.
