The events of the last few months deserve extensive analysis. The attack on the USA led to the defeat of the Taleban and huge changes in Afghanistan and Central Asia. The problems between India and Pakistan are on-again, off-again with nuclear weapons brandished. The Middle East was initially stunned by the events and their consequences. But then the Palestinian problem boiled up to the surface and was about to flow over the edges and burn many hands. With suicide attacks as a weapon and the Israeli response by reoccupying the Palestinian territories and shattering their life, all parties scrambled to dampen the fire before it gets out of hand and engulfs many nations. At the focal point though was Arafat, the Palestinian Authority president.
Arafat was despised by the Israeli government of Sharon from the beginning. After Sept. 11, Sharon succeeded to lump Arafat with all other kinds of terrors that US was facing and fighting. US followed through with the Israeli ideas and accusations and started to isolate Arafat. It must have been a big setback for him not to be invited to visit with George W. Bush despite many visits by Sharon to the same. Arafat was under constant criticism from the Bush administration.
Finally, the man, who is seventy something years old, was confined by Israeli troops to one city for several months, then to one building, and ultimately to an office room or so for several weeks. Rockets, bullets, and shells were fired all around him. But Arafat who is accused of being behind the latest intifada and of either being a continuing terrorist or at least terrorism-condoning leader, is not a simple man or case. He managed to get out of it all. Thanks to his credentials.
It is recognized by so many leaders and nations that Arafat represents the Palestinian cause as summarized in a "Palestinian state". He has tried so hard and long for that goal. This cause has now been admitted by most parties including Sharon himself. But the devil is in the details of what kind of state it should be. Still, Arafat has been accused of mismanagement of the Palestinian cause and the trust of his people. While the Palestinians may disagree on Arafat among themselves, they so far uphold him in front of the outside world, and especially in dealing with Israel and the USA. After all Arafat is a Nobel Peace prize winner and has signed on many agreements with Israel. He is a well traveled leader, with excursions everywhere in the world. His travels took him to meetings with almost all leaders and influential people of the world. He visited the White House several times during the Clinton administration.
Indirectly, these credentials saved his neck in the latest siege by the Israeli Army around his room. Due to the outpouring concern from Arab, Muslim, and European leaders and people, the Israelis assured all that he will be safe. Same mentioned credentials saved him from being thrown out all together from the area as Sharon wished and tried. In response to Sharon tactics, Arafat himself played a highwire game. He threatened to be a martyr in his office rather than safe in exile. Arafat is a survivor, and this recent situation was not his first time to seep out of an Israeli siege. The first time was in Beirut in the early 80s. No wonder, it was also Sharon against Arafat. Then, as it is now, the Saudi stepped up and played a crucial rule to keep the fire contained from escalation
Arafat, as it is evident now, got out of his confinement with a deal; reform or else. The soft old man under heat, pressure and extraordinary conditions has conformed, formed, and deformed. He became elastic and plastic. This capacity to deform may have brought the wrath of many people and leaders on him before. They may see things different from their positions, but never from his seat and perspective. Take out the pressure on him and the mold he is forced into, and he could bounce back to an older form and shape.
Arafat wants to finish what he started and be crowned as the first president for the Palestinian state. His personal hopes and ambitions are entangled with the Palestinian aspiration. Sharon, on the other side, insists on Palestinian reforms before he can even deal with the issue. And then he expects and wants to deal for years before agreement. His party already strengthened his negotiation position by adopting a resolution "never to accept a Palestinian state".
Ever wonder where all of this taking us. Well, Arafat does not have much time left. Age, health, and deeply wounded Palestinian factions are all limits on his tenure. Sharon on the other side is just another passing Israeli prime minister in a long series. The structure of the political system in Israel could bring a change in their government at will and force the game to start over. This does not help solve any problem, but keeps frustration building up. Sincere and deep USA intervention is needed to ensure no more eruptions in the Palestinian boiler and the Muslim attitude.