It is understandable why some Pakistanis might think that terrorist attacks in the country and in neighboring Kashmir are the work of Indian agents provocateurs. The appalling massacre of some 27 Hindus, mostly women and children, on Saturday in the city of Jammu and the grenade attack the same day on a bus in northern Pakistan in which some 28 tourists were injured, does immeasurable damage to Pakistan and its government. At the very least, what little remained of foreign investor confidence will now have totally evaporated. Foreign businessmen were already leaving in droves, afraid that they might be the next terrorist target, particularly after the May bomb in Karachi which killed 15 French engineers. But even then, there was still a desperate wish among the most committed of them that if they kept their heads down, they would be all right. No one is going to believe that any more. Saturday’s bus attack sends a clear message that all foreigners are at risk. Pakistan is now as dangerous a place as Lebanon during the height of the civil war there, is the message they read.
“Who gains from the resultant economic devastation?” Pakistanis ask. “Who gains if the country is seen as being behind the atrocities in Kashmir?” In their mind, there is only one answer: India.
Certainly, someone wants the worst for Pakistan — and seems to be succeeding. But it is no more logical to point the finger at India than it is to do what Delhi does — claim that Pakistan is masterminding the attacks in Kashmir. Despite all the bombastic rhetoric between the two, neither side wants war, which is where these terror attacks will inevitably lead if they continue. Both know that, as nuclear powers, they cannot afford one; that, moreover, the international community will impose the harshest of sanctions against them if there is any fresh slide toward military conflict. Neither is going to undertake actions that will take them down that road.
But there is clearly someone out there who would be more than happy to see a full-scale war between the two — a war which, all experts agree, Pakistan would lose given its inferior military might, and which would then trigger the collapse of the Musharraf government. Whoever is responsible for these attacks, which may or may not be linked, they know fully well the mind of India’s nationalist government. They know that it thrives on anti-Pakistani sentiments, that it is in no mood for dialogue with Islamabad, and that the more atrocities there are in Kashmir, the more aggressive it is going to become.
Apart from Al-Qaeda, there are two groups who would like nothing better than the collapse of Gen. Musharraf and the Islamabad government — both of them Pakistani, both of them militant, both of them fundamentally alienated by Musharraf’s support for the US in its war against terrorism and both already outlawed: Laskhar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Muhammad. Both may also be supported by rogue elements in Pakistan’s intelligence services who similarly have reasons for wanting to destabilize the situation.
President Musharraf needs to crush these elements. They pose as great a danger to Pakistan’s stability and peace as they do to Kashmir’s and India’s. It will be his toughest battle.
