The pronouncement by US Secretary of State Colin Powell that he is prepared to see Yasser Arafat continue as Palestinian president, but “kicked upstairs” and given a purely symbolic role, shows that Washington still thinks it can dictate who should be lead the Palestinians. Last month there was a gale of international criticism in reaction to President Bush’s controversial call for Arafat to be replaced as Palestinian leader and the Palestinian Authority reformed as preconditions for progress on Palestinian statehood. Even America’s closest allies — apart from the Israelis, of course — expressed their total opposition to a proposal so fundamentally undemocratic.
Powell’s latest pronouncement is, however, something of a volte face over Bush’s earlier intervention which, in the event, did as much to boost Arafat’s standing among Palestinians as the siege of his Ramallah headquarters. The Palestinian leader enjoys a mercurial popularity among his people: his ratings slide when he becomes the politician running a Palestinian administration or the diplomat forced to make compromises at the peace table but soar when his back is against the wall, threatened by the Israelis, the Americans or anyone else the Palestinians regard as the enemy. Thus the minute George Bush said that he wanted Arafat replaced, he ensured that he would win the presidential elections, on course for early next year, by a landslide.
Is it that belatedly, they have realized the folly of such an aggressive demand? That could be the reason behind Powell’s adaptation of the Bush demand — that and a desire not to open a damaging breach with the European Union, Russia and the United Nations who, with the US, make up the quartet seeking a breakthrough on the Middle East but who have publicly disagreed with the demand for Arafat’s replacement.
On the other hand, it still remains to be seen if Powell’s suggestion is endorsed by the White House or whether he was talking purely on his own behalf. The token dove in a hawk’s nest, he is something of a semidetatched member of the Bush administration. It would not be the first time that he has been used as a sounding board or seen his views subsequently sidelined.
Whether or not he speaks for the rest of the administration, his belated fine-tuning of Bush’s demand on Arafat is, however, no cause for satisfaction. It is as much an imperious diktat as Bush’s original demand. The ground rule remains the same: it is the Palestinians, and they alone, who will decide who their leaders are — not the Americans, not the Israelis, not other Arabs states, not anyone else. Any US attempt to interfere in that process is destined to backfire. In this case, the more Washington is seen trying to topple Arafat, the stronger Palestinian support for him will become.
Powell’s amendment and the Bush original serve merely to underline Washington’s parlous understanding of events and sentiments in the Middle East. It remains as abysmal as before Sept. 11 — and that despite intensive efforts of Arab leaders, not least Crown Prince Abdullah, to enlighten it. The blinkers remain firmly in place.
That is something that even the American public ought to be depressed about.
