NEW DELHI, 11 October — Amid speculations about the stunning defeat of National Conference chief ministerial candidate Omar Abdullah from traditional family constituency Gandarbal, the big question doing the rounds is who will occupy the hot seat. Who will be the next chief minister of Jammu and Kashmir, the much-coveted position with considerable international recognition? With Omar Abdullah having categorically opted his party’s fate to that of sitting in the opposition, the path is open for the Congress and the People’s Democratic Party — a new entrant in the Kashimiri political drama.

While there is little doubt about the two aligning to form the coming state government, speculations are strong about which party would the chief minister emerge from, Congress or the PDP. The two parties had tied up during the polls too, with Congress withdrawing its candidates from 10 seats to ensure PDP candidates’ success including that of Mehbooba Mufti. Mehbooba is the daughter of PDP President Mufti Mohammed Sayeed, who was earlier the state Congress president for around 10 years.

“This indicates the growing confidence of the people in the party,” Congress President Sonia Gandhi said yesterday. “The victory in Jammu and Kashmir is a matter of great joy for us,” a beaming Gandhi said in Mathura, Uttar Pradesh, where she began a statewide tour yesterday to rebuild her party.

Gandhi, however, smiled away a question on the party’s chief ministerial candidate.

Asserting that Congress and PDP alliance would provide a stable government, senior Congress leader Karan Singh said he favored J&K PCC President Ghulam Nabi Azad as the next chief minister and PDP leader Mehbooba Mufti as the deputy chief minister. “In my personal opinion, Azad should be made the chief minister as he has the requisite qualification. Though he hails from Jammu, he has a good rapport with the Kashmir valley,” Singh said.

PDP leaders, however, have hinted that they would prefer their party chief to become the chief minister. PDP Vice President Muzaffar Baig said that only a chief minister from the Valley would be able to form a rapport with militants for a dialogue. Mufti hailing from the Valley scores over Azad. Besides, Mufti is far more senior and well versed in complicated politics of the state than Azad.

Baig said, “We are not pushing for anything. We will explore the possibility of the chief minister through consultations.”

Expressing fear that there could be a dilemma on the issue, he said, “The ground realities have to be kept in mind as Kashmiris have aspirations and a chief minister from Kashmir valley can establish a rapport with militants for a dialogue.” When Mufti was questioned about his options by a private television channel in Srinagar, he said, “It is too early to say anything.” Without dismissing his options for the chief ministerial position, Mufti also said, “Well, I have experience on my side.”

Karan Singh’s comments suggest that the Congress has probably decided its cards. It wants the chief architect of its victory in the state, Azad to head the state government. The same was suggested by senior Congress leader Ambika Soni’s comments who campaigned tirelessly with Azad. Expressing that people’s verdict displayed their choice for a change of regime, she said, “People wanted a change of regime but did not have the confidence that it could happen. ... Ghulam Nabi’s efforts gave reason for them to believe that there was an alternative.”

“Ghulam Nabi Azad vitalized party cadres lying dormant. In 1996, faulty ticket distribution and large-scale rigging had seen the party fare very badly,” said Satyajit Gaekwad, who looks after Jammu and Kashmir affairs in the Congress.

When Azad was earlier shifted to handle Congress affairs in the state, it was viewed as a punishment. He was also more famous as a non-resident Kashmiri than a hard-core Kashmiri. With Azad having taken his party to astonishing heights within a few months, Sonia Gandhi may well be expected to bank on him as a worthy occupant of the hot seat. Yet, the party is also well aware that it cannot stay in the forefront without PDP’s support. That explains instant “creation” of the deputy chief minister’s post.

If Azad, the Congress candidate hailing from Jammu becomes the chief minister, Mehbooba, the PDP candidate from the Valley would be the deputy chief minister. But if the PDP insists on its president becoming chief minister, the Congress would have to give in. Azad’s prospects would have been brighter had he hailed from the Valley or Congress emerged as the single largest party. With neither option favoring Azad, sources indicate that PDP may have its way with Mufti becoming the chief minister and Azad the deputy chief minister.