For a man who once was regarded as not the sharpest knife in the drawer, George W. Bush seems either to have been vastly underrated or is — once again — a very lucky man. Most of the credit for Bush’s current good fortune probably goes to Karl Rove, strategist for the Bush administration and a master of timing.

Rove set out early this year to win the off-year elections for Republicans. Timing was essential: Rove didn’t want to rush it, because his strategy was to bring the problem of Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein to the public forefront just as voters pick up their ballots. In fact, this happened almost too quickly. Happily for Rove — and Bush — however, the Democrats were divided on what to do about Saddam.

As a result of this division, given the fact that the American electorate moves relatively slowly, most voters will reach their own conclusions almost exactly as the voting begins. Since both the Senate and the House are facing critical elections, Rove and Bush have done their utmost to give their candidates the edge on timing.

Until about three months ago, leading Democrats had very high hopes of keeping their newly found Senate majority, possibly taking the House as well. Now, however, the situation has reversed itself. The Senate may go back to Republican control, and the House will continue to have a Republican majority.

What follows in the coming four weeks are only the details. Bush wants one UN resolution to deal with Saddam, while France wants two. The first option would insist that weapons inspectors be allowed into all parts of Iraq with no conditions or delays, allowing for military action if Saddam does not cooperate. The French option demands the same access, but would require a second vote to consider military action if Saddam should equivocate.

Under either scenario, it will take time to bring back the inspectors and start moving the inspections forward. It is highly unlikely that Saddam will begin to equivocate, particularly if the Iraqis truly have nothing to hide. Bush would be relieved to discover that Saddam is cooperating. It is expensive, to put it mildly, to mount an entire task force, particularly when the US does not really have the money to carry out such a plan without assistance from its allies. If, on the other hand, it appears that Saddam really is cheating, then many US allies — both from Europe and probably much of the Middle East — would join a coalition, as was the case in the 1991 Gulf war.

Either way, Bush wins. He needs allies, particularly in the Arab world, because he literally can’t afford a war otherwise. The Arabs, it should be noted, have said nothing about helping to pay the costs of such a war, and the Americans simply can’t pay for it without very serious economic repercussions. Despite Bush’s bombast, he has no intention of going it alone.

At this point, Bush will have survived this year’s fall elections and will be in no hurry to deal with what follows. He doesn’t care whether it turns out that Saddam does plan to cheat — in which case Bush will have allies — or whether Saddam decides to allow full inspections — in which case the problem will soon be over.

So what does Bush do for an encore before the 2004 elections? Obviously, almost the entire world will hope that Bush turns his attention to the burning issue of the hour. That, of course, is insisting on a just peace for the Palestinians. All of the ground work has been laid. The Arab League has agreed that, if Israel withdraws to the pre-1967 borders, nearly every Arab nation would extend Israel full diplomatic relations.

It’s quite obvious, however, that Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, and several other Israeli officials, have no intention of returning to those borders. Their strategy would most likely be to start a new diversion — any diversion — rather than make peace with the Palestinians.

Thus, the Israelis already are probing for new ways to avoid a solution. They have reconnoitered the prospects for a public relations offensive against Saudi Arabia. Another possibility would be for Israel to start agitating against Syria, with the added benefit of keeping the Golan Heights permanently. Other potential targets are Libya, Iran or even Yemen. For the Israelis, it doesn’t really matter — just as long as a new diversion appears before the problem of Saddam is resolved.

While it is possible that the Bush administration will deal with the Palestine problem before some new catastrophe emerges, given the makeup of the Bush inner circle — Vice President Richard Cheney, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, and their ilk — there is not much likelihood of that happening. On the other hand, Secretary of State Colin L. Powell will almost certainly want to deal with the Palestine problem directly, as that is the only sensible course of action.

It also is the only realistic way to deal with the administration’s other problems in the Middle East. The Al-Qaeda problem, for example, will probably take care of itself if there is a just solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict.

So will Powell prevail over the formidable odds stacked against him? This writer thinks the situation may be more hopeful than it looks. The time is ripe for a settlement of the Palestine problem.

In fact, in the absence of such a settlement, there is a disconnect in everything else the US wants to do — and, indeed, must do — if world peace is to prevail.

All of this will take time, of course — and that is exactly what the Israelis are counting on. Their strategy will be to stall until the 2004 elections are under way, in order to once again influence American voters. However, the US must deal with the Palestine problem now.

— Richard H. Curtiss is the news editor of the Washington Report on Middle East Affairs magazine.