WASHINGTON, 4 November — With the collapse of the Likud-Labour coalition, Israel will now have its first fully right-wing government in almost generation.
Should this matter to the Palestinians?
There are those who say: Not a bit! All Israelis are the same!
Well, they are wrong.
The coalition led by Prime Minister Ariel Sharon fell apart because the Labour Party insisted that some limits be imposed against the settlers who have acted as a state within the Israeli state for at least two decades.
The issue is crucial for several reasons.
The Palestinians could never make peace with the settlers who represent nothing but classical-style “colons”.
The Jewish settlers represent the Israeli version of the French “ pieds-noirs” (black-foots) colons that fought against Algerian independence to the bitter end. They also recall the white supremacists in South Africa who tried to prolong the apartheid system for as long as possible. Algeria achieved independence when a majority of the French realized that they had been duped by the “black-foots”. And apartheid collapsed when a majority of the white minority distanced itself from the racist land-grabbers who were convinced that blacks were created to be slaves.
Thus, if a major Israeli party distances itself from the settlers, the event must be regarded as significant.
To be sure, this does not mean that Israel’s current policy, as shaped by Sharon, is going to change.
Scores of opinion polls in the past two years reveal a paradox. On the one hand, an almost two-third majority of Israelis say they support the creation of a Palestinian state, even with East Jerusalem as its capital. On the other hand, all opinion polls show that if a general election were to be held today the Likud-led coalition under Sharon would win an even bigger majority. There are three reasons for this paradox.
The first is that the grand coalition gave the impression that, broadly speaking, there is no alternative to Sharon’s policies. Because the Labour party was offering a “coca-cola light” version of Sharonism, there was no reason for Israeli voters to support it.
The second reason is the failure of the Palestinians to produce a credible leadership with a clear strategy.
Thus most Israelis fear that a Palestinian state ruled by Yasser Arafat in his well-known authoritarian style, could quickly become a base for aggression against its Jewish neighbor. That view is largely due to Arafat’s passion for cultivating ambiguity. He wants to be everything to everyone at the same time. No one quite knows whether he regards Israel as a partner or as an enemy.
The third reason that explains the Israeli paradox is the impression that most Israelis have of the current American policy. They have been persuaded that the Bush administration favors Sharon. That impression may be strengthened by the possible arrival in the government of former Premier Benjamin Netanyahu as foreign minister. Many believe that Israel will have to hold a general election soon next year, possibly after the “liberation” of Iraq. After that election it is possible that Sharon will bow out and hand over the torch to Netanyahu.
As far as peacemaking is concerned the Likud-Labor coalition had reached an impasse.
Its collapse creates new opportunities. Thus it would be wrong for the Palestinians to pretend that nothing has happened. The Palestinians have a clear option. They can either decide that Israel is the enemy that ought to be fought by all means and to the bitter end. That would require a completely new strategy one of whose aims would be to break the morale of the ordinary Israelis.
The alternative is to regard Israel as a potential partner in peacemaking, and a neighbor and future friend. That would also require a completely different strategy aimed at reassuring the ordinary Israelis and giving them the courage to contemplate a future based on the two-state formula.
The phrase “just peace” is an oxymoron. No peace in history has ever been just or can be. Those who want justice must fight to the bitter end and, then, wait for the next world. Those who want peace must compromise, including by swallowing some very bitter pills.
If the Palestinians choose a peace that is both honorable and practical, they would be in a position to offer the Israeli voter a real choice. This is why what has happened is important and what will happen in Israeli and Palestinian politics in the next few months will be even more so.
