It is precisely one year since the liberation of Kabul from the Taleban regime. It has been a helter-skelter of a time; Afghanistan’s political framework has been more or less agreed but no one in his right mind would suggest that the country is settled or its future peace and prosperity assured. Despite the presence of over 10,000 foreign troops (mainly American), insecurity still stalks the land: government ministers have been assassinated, there was an attempt to assassinate President Hamid Karzai in September, there have been terrorist attacks in Kabul and elsewhere, and much of the country is again ruled by warlords who have no intention of surrendering their weapons. Add to this rising crime, revived opium production, and now student protests and it looks a far from encouraging picture. But in marking the anniversary, it would be wrong to dwell on the downsides.
It is wrong because the picture is far from doom and gloom. There may be problems with law and order but they are being addressed — only yesterday a new army battalion, trained by the French and Americans, graduated; opium production may be increasing, but it is still nothing compared to what it was before the Taleban took over. As for the student protests, they can be seen as affirming the new freedoms; and the lack of success in tracking down Taleban remnants is increasingly viewed, both by the Americans and the Afghans, as proof that the task is over; there are no more Taleban forces to be found in the country. They have been hunted into exile.
There is, however, one overriding reason for optimism. The Afghans themselves are confident that the country is on the right track. Their enthusiasm is spurred on by what is happening on the streets of Kabul and other cities. Where there was once fear, suspicion and misery, today there is the chaos of traffic jams and people everywhere; in the markets where once there was little to find, now everything is available: clothes, food, televisions, DVDs, computers. The capital is again a vibrant, bustling city. The merchants have returned. In the country as a whole, two million people have gone back. It is a vote of public confidence; they have voted with their feet.
But therein lies the heart of the problem. The Afghan government is faced with massive expectations — and the $5 billion pledged in February by the rest of the world to rebuild the ravaged economy is remarkably slow in coming. The chasm between expectations and fulfillment is potentially dangerous: the government’s credibility depends on major projects being seen to happen; new schools, hospitals, houses and roads would boost its role and authority. But things may be about to change. This week, Karzai, assisted by Saudi, US and Japanese representatives, launched the $250-million reconstruction of Afghanistan’s highway from Kabul to Kandahar and Herat. This Saudi-American-Japanese funded project is of great importance not just in itself, but as a practical sign to Afghans that the world intends to keep its promises and help them out. That is profoundly encouraging, as is the message coming out of Washington that the focus no longer needs to be on military action, instead should be on reconstruction.
The task still remains daunting, but who can honestly be a hardhearted pessimist? The Afghans have been through a nightmare but have faith in the future. The country may not yet be at peace, but it is impossible not to share their faith.
