Saddam Hussein has done what he had to do: accept the UN resolution on arms inspections. He had no option. It was either that, or face inevitable war and lose his leadership and quite possibly his life.
Across the Arab world, there has been a sigh of relief. War has been averted it is assumed, and the US prevented from making a move that could tip the region into chaos. Not that it was the only reason why Arab states were united in calling on Baghdad to comply and allow the inspectors back in: there is the other compelling reason for wanting Iraqi disarmament — that of the Arab states being Saddam Hussein’s first target.
Whether Iraq’s total submission means that war has been averted remains to be seen, however. Saddam is a megalomaniac and a Machiavellian; the first means that he believes that he is smarter than everyone else and can trample over everyone who gets in his way; the second means that while he may bide his time, he will plot and scheme his comeback. He has done it before; no doubt he imagines he can do it again. Indeed, Iraq’s letter of grudging acceptance to the UN, with its promise of a further communication spelling out why it regards Resolution 1441 as illegal in international law suggests that the scheming has already started. Not that it will do any good. Saddam Hussein is in a tight corner; the US will use the slightest hint of lack of compliance to claim that he is in defiance of the resolution and move for war. He is in no position but to comply — to the limit.Given that reality, it can be assumed that until the world focuses its attention elsewhere Saddam Hussein will compromise to the maximum and dance to American demands. It is his style.
But though Saddam Hussein may congratulate himself that he has survived and can therefore live to fight another day — thanks to the Russians and French softening the resolution wanted by Washington — the Americans are not going to let matters stop there and simply hold him to account on the armaments issue. They still want a regime change — and they have the means to continue ratcheting up the pressure. Resolution 1441 is open to wide interpretation. Just because there is nothing in it about human rights abuses or free and fair elections does not mean that these issues cannot be brought into play. It effectively includes previous resolutions on Iraq — resolutions which do deal with such issues. Washington may well latch on to these points and use them make fresh, punishing demands of the Baghdad regime.
Iraqi Kurdish leader Jalal Talabani says that the only way for Saddam Hussein to come out of this crisis is by holding real elections. An interesting suggestion, but in fact it is the last thing Saddam Hussein could afford. He would never win in free and fair elections. Yet here may lie the answer to what the Iraq people want, what the Arab world wants: regime change without war.
A unified international demand, backed by the unspoken threat of war, has forced Iraq to accept arms inspectors back in. That has made many in the Iraqi opposition wonder: might not a similar threat force Saddam to accept elections? That, they feel, ought to be the next step.
