US Secretary of State Colin L. Powell won a major diplomatic victory last week over the war hawks in the current administration. An article in The New York Times described “How Powell Lined Up Votes, starting With His President’s,” while The Washington Post wrote, “For Powell, A Long Path to a Victory.”

Only a month ago, some people believed that Powell was on the verge of resigning his position. He didn’t, however, and his persistence paid off in an almost unparalleled diplomatic triumph. No one could have expected that Powell would bring the entire 15-member United Nations Security Council together for a unanimous vote on a revised US resolution on Iraq. Even Syria, a staunch opponent to any war in Iraq, agreed to the resolution at the last moment.

Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein quickly acceded to the UN demands. He had learned his lesson the hard way late in the winter of 1991, when he allowed a UN deadline to slip by for two or three days without a decision. That turned out to be a catastrophic mistake. The allied air war began immediately, and the ground war followed two months later. Saddam may be unpredictable, but he presumably is not suicidal.

Meanwhile, President George W. Bush has concluded that, if Saddam Hussein is not holding back some stash of hidden missiles, the US almost certainly will suspend hostilities. Thus, if there is no backsliding on Saddam’s part, there will probably be peace for the time being — although many people believe that Saddam Hussein eventually will be overthrown. Aside from that possibility, however, there will be no “regime change” per Bush’s original plans.

The so-called “Quartet” of the European Union, Russia, the United States and the UN, is now turning its attention to the Palestinians. Three of the four have made it clear that nothing else should be on the world’s plate. The question is, where does the United States stand? This writer’s guess is that, despite the fact that Israel and the Israel lobby in the US will fight new peace initiatives tooth and nail, Washington also will join in.

Strange as it may seem, this will be easy to do — although delays will probably encompass at least three more years — simply by postponing the bailout measures Israel is frantically seeking. Israel really has no other source than the US to turn to help rescue its virtually bankrupt economy. Even the most fanatical Americans who have vowed to stick with Israel through thick and thin in fact will not when faced with that country’s failing economic prospects.

It would seem unlikely, after all the fireworks are done, that Israel of its own accord would surrender quietly and comply with the Arab League and the EU. If, on the other hand, the US does not bail Israel out financially, the Jewish state may have no choice but to finally agree to withdraw to the pre-1967 borders in exchange for a peace treaty with the rest of the world.

Given the odds against him, how did Colin Powell manage ultimately to prevail? After all, Vice President Dick Cheney, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld and another evil genius, Assistant Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz, all worked diligently with Washington’s so-called “war party”. Their efforts, however, could not rise above Powell’s persistence and good common sense. One must also credit National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice, who insisted that equal opportunity be provided both Powell and the war party to present their differing arguments and hear each other out before Bush made his final decision. Powell is extremely persuasive, and it was finally clear to Bush that, despite his own “damn the torpedoes” instincts, his secretary of state was right. Given France and Russia’s reluctance to go along with the initial US proposal, moreover, it also was the best decision Bush could have made.

If Saddam Hussein is in fact cheating or trying to hold back some of his weapons of mass destruction, Bush now could proceed with his war plans without further delay. However, Powell once again would probably go back to the UN to ensure that the rest of the world is in agreement. That would help the US not only in gaining allies, but even possible financial support for a war.

On the domestic front, Bush has engineered a masterpiece of political maneuvering that regained the Senate from the Democratic Party and retained the House for Republicans. If Bush uses his opportunity wisely, he may be able to realize a number of major achievements over the next two years — just in time for the 2004 presidential elections.

Given the superb political advice of his campaign strategist Karl Rove, it is hard to imagine that Bush would not enjoy smooth sailing in the coming two years. Elections are always unpredictable, of course, but at this point Bush has the odds stacked very much in his favor.

It would behoove Americans who want to help solve the Palestinian problem to work as earnestly as possible to thwart the Israelis — or, rather, those Israelis who are not seeking peace. Certainly all the other major world powers will be doing their share to end this problem once and for all, given the fact that it is probably the most dangerous crisis facing the world today.

This is the time to pray for peace, to work for peace, and not be distracted by new diversions when the goal seems better than ever before. Having seen what Colin Powell can do, it may well be that Cheney, Rumsfeld and even Wolfowitz cannot stop the peace camp from finally winning the real war that still lies ahead.

— Richard H. Curtiss is the executive editor of the Washington Report on Middle East Affairs.