Democracy in Pakistan has become very much like a damsel in distress. Everybody is trying to save it. And elected politicians seem to think that they can do so by somehow becoming a part of the ruling coalition. That is how the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), a party with large support in urban Sindh, has reviewed its last week’s decision of sitting on the opposition benches after initially voting for Prime Minister Zafarullah Jamali. MQM leader Farooq Sattar explained that this decision was taken to save the democratic process in the country.

While Jamali’s fragile majority in the National Assembly could be seriously endangered with the loss of MQM’s 17 votes, the alliance of the religious party, Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) had already affirmed that it would not allow the democratic process to be disrupted with the defeat of the Jamali government. Otherwise, MMA opposes the ruling coalition led by Pakistan Muslim League, the so-called king’s party and is unwilling to compromise on the status and powers of President Gen Pervez Musharraf.

At the same time, however, MMA is in the ruling coalition in Balochistan province.

Legislatures of three of the four provinces have met and elected their governments after the induction of Prime Minister Jamali. However, Sindh assembly has not yet been convened because bargaining for a pro-establishment coalition is not resolved. In Sindh, the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) of Benazir Bhutto is the largest party but not in majority and other groups have differences on the choice of a chief minister and distribution of ministerial portfolios. Here too, MQM has a large presence. Incidentally, MQM has decided to support the Jamali government “without placing any new demands or assurances from the government.” It has also asked the prime minister to ensure the election of MQM chief minister in Sindh. But the main MQM issue is the removal of its breakaway wing from what it calls ‘no-go’ areas.

An operation in those areas was launched just a day before the National Assembly elected the leader of the house and this prompted MQM to go with the establishment.

Then, unhappy with the progress of that operation, it last week withdrew its support. Ostensibly, a number of promises have been made to MQM as events now unfolding are likely to show.

The formation of a government in Sindh should have some crucial bearing on the future direction of Pakistan’s maze-like politics. The law and order situation in Karachi, capital of Sindh, is to be particularly watched.

The city has suffered some bloody periods of disorder during the past about three decades and the no-go areas’ issue may lead to some fresh violence. To a large extent, ethnic and political confrontations in Karachi are a reflection of the rural-urban, or, in other words, Sindhi-Mohajir divide in the province.

Things would have been all right if MQM could work in harmony with PPP, widely supported in the rural areas, but this has not been possible, though MQM has had its alliance in the past with all national parties.

In the present circumstances, the establishment would not want PPP to gain power in Sindh and MQM would obviously figure prominently in this plan. At the center, too, it took ten defections from the PPP to cobble together the necessary support for Prime Minister Jamali. Against this backdrop, PPP is confronted with the challenge of preserving its unity and political strength in very difficult circumstances. It had secured the largest number of votes in Oct. 10 elections and was the second largest party in the National Assembly but its substantial strength has effectively been weakened by the expedient moves of the establishment.

Still, there were times before the formation of the government when PPP appeared close to striking a deal with either the ruling party or the religious alliance.

In the case of MMA, the third largest group in the National Assembly, the rewards are more tangible because it has a solid majority in the Frontier province bordering Afghanistan. Also, it has joined the coalition in Balochistan, the other province that shares its borders with Afghanistan.

But many questions are raised about the impact that MMA, with its aggressive anti-American posture and sympathy for the Taleban, could make on the country’s politics.

Because it is not in the coalition at the center, it does not technically have any influence on the country’s foreign policy that now rests on collaboration with America’s war against international terrorism.

Eventually, however, Pakistan and its ruling establishment will have to come to terms with the massive thrust that MMA has provided to those who are associated with fundamentalism. President Musharraf has committed himself to the task of eradicating religious extremism and the very results of the election showed that he had not been very successful. Hence, it is difficult to appreciate his choice of friends and adversaries.

Arab News Opinion 9 December 2002