It is true that what was trumpeted as the first trophy won in its role as the global cop patrolling the world’s seas and skies has turned out be a diplomatic stinker for Washington. It has been forced to set free the North Korean freighter, So San, with its cargo of 15 Scud-like missiles concealed under a consignment of cement. The US could not afford to ignore the Yemen government’s fury. It is an important ally in its war against Iraq.
That the whole big-power show turned out to be a highhanded farce in the seas does not mean that the issue was nothing more than a comedy. There are unanswered questions about the seizure of the So San. The big puzzle is what the North Korean regime is up to. Could it be that Pyongyang was indulging in some extremely dangerous brinkmanship?
The one thing that works successfully in North Korea is its military machine. The regime may be unable to feed itself but its long-suffering population is kept in line by a powerful and well-oiled police state. When the North Korean leadership was forced to go cap in hand to the international community last year for food aid, the United States sought to exploit the regime’s difficulties. Washington was concerned about Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons program and while food aid was being organized, it reactivated a deal to supply the regime with two modern nuclear reactors, incapable of producing material for use in nuclear weaponry, if North Korea would decommission reactors they already have, the fuel from which can be used to make atomic bombs.
When this summer, the North Koreans let slip, in a manner that has still not been satisfactorily explained, that they had resumed their atomic weapons program, the US promptly suspended oil deliveries. This, however, did not seem to faze the communist leadership a bit. Pyongyang could teach the US a whole lot about playing the “good-cop, bad-cop” game. It plays the game so that no one in the outside world would be certain of the intentions of the government and its leader. Confusion serves the North Korean best because it enhances the fear that if this regime does indeed posses nuclear or biological weapons, it is sufficiently unstable, in the right circumstances, to use them. Thus a state whose people have been going hungry for decades finds itself able to punch far above its weight.
Very few have ever guessed Pyongyang’s motives with any accuracy in the past. There is no reason why any one would do any better now. However, it is fair to guess that, Pyongyang suspects that when the US finishes with Iraq, it will be next on the White House hit list. Thus anything that it can do to stir up trouble while the US is maneuvering itself into a position where it can use its military might to topple the Saddam regime will buy it time.
The Pentagon has apparently decided it does not want to initiate two conflicts simultaneously. It is having trouble enough finishing its mission in Afghanistan. This indeed may have been why the White House sent the Spanish to intercept the So San, rather than use one of its own warships. In this game of chess however, the North Koreans have no compunction about moving several pieces in the same move. We can surely expect more from them and probably sooner, rather than later.
