The most welcome part of the sudden thaw in relations between Islamabad and Delhi is Pakistan’s offer of nuclear disarmament if India reciprocates. If they could do it, what an example that would set to the whole world.
There has to be considerable caution, however, as to whether the thaw will last. Both countries have been here before, pledging peace only to be threatening each other with even greater bitterness almost the next day. No one can forget the razzmatazz of Indian Prime Minister A.B. Vajpayee’s 1999 bus trip to Lahore, which so quickly went sour; or two years ago, the sudden collapse of the Agra summit between him and Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf, and the sense of bitterness on both sides afterward. That is the trouble with expectations; when dashed, they make the situation worse.
There are compelling reasons to fear that this chance of historic peace will likewise end in tears and recrimination. The key irritant, the Kashmir problem, is insoluble while the two sides retain their present positions: Pakistan that India must allow the part of Kashmir it administers self-determination; India that it must forever remain part of it. Moreover, both leaders are hostage to domestic public opinion on the subject. Pakistani public opinion will not allow Musharraf to crush Kashmiri militants. Despite his promises to the US, he has to be seen to support them. Yet he has little control over them. For their part, they have a vested interest in preventing the outbreak of peace between Islamabad and Delhi. They do not want a compromise settlement of the issue; nothing less than 100 percent victory will satisfy them.
In Delhi too, Vajpayee has to tread very carefully so as not to alienate public opinion, let alone the hard-liners in his own BJP camp who see in Pakistan the very essence of everything they hate and fear. With general elections next year, he cannot afford for talks to fail again. It could spell electoral disaster — although long before that, the militants in the BJP and the RSS would probably grab such failure to replace him with someone like the militant Hindu nationalist Narendra Modi, already waiting impatiently to step into his shoes.
But both Vajpayee and Musharraf would like to go down in their country’s history books as the men who ended half-a-century of hatred and transformed foreign politics. That is what is driving events. The alacrity with which they have responded to each other’s offers shows a deep desire to grab the opportunity to create a new relationship before they exit the political stage. It has been like a tennis match between top seeds — high-powered volley followed by return volley.
The other motor is the US. Yesterday’s visit to Pakistan by US Undersecretary of State Richard Armitage at the start of a regional trip, just when offer is being topped by counteroffer, is no coincidence. It confirms Washington’s hand in finding a solution. It may not be politically correct to talk about mediation: India takes great exception to the word. But there is no doubt that it is at least “actively encouraging” both governments to put their relations of a new footing. Despite the record, for the sake of nuclear peace, for the sake of conventional peace, we must hope it will succeed.
