OCCUPIED JERUSALEM, 11 May 2003 — In the original game plan, the new Middle East peace initiative called the “road map’’ was supposed to be unveiled with much fanfare, accompanied by the simultaneous release of unequivocal statements by the Israeli and Palestinian governments in which Palestinians reiterated Israel’s right to exist and Israelis supported the creation of an independent Palestinian state.

But 10 days later, on the eve of a major visit to Israel and the West Bank by Secretary of State Colin Powell, the statements — which were meant to be symbolic, goodwill gestures to signal readiness on both sides to stop fighting and start talking — have yet to be issued. Instead of renewed hope and optimism, the road map’s release has been accompanied by the familiar refrains of mutual accusation and distrust.

Powell’s trip, his first to Israel in more than a year, heralds the launch of what many in the region hope is a renewed commitment by the United States to help to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which many analysts see as the main cause of instability in the Middle East. A more dedicated US role is considered essential to ending the 31-month Palestinian uprising against Israel’s occupation of the West Bank and Gaza Strip, analysts say.

Powell is scheduled to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and newly installed Palestinian Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas — and several other Israeli and Palestinian leaders — before continuing to Cairo and Amman. He will not meet with Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat, whom the United States and Israel are trying to isolate internationally.

Few people here see signs yet that the road map, which the Bush administration has promised to make a major part of its Middle East policy, is acting as a catalyst for a cease-fire or leading to significant steps toward renewing talks about a permanent peace. The plan was crafted by a group called the Quartet comprising the United States, Russia, the European Union and United Nations.

“I don’t want to sound cynical, but it’s easy to have the rhetoric of peace when the issues of peace are so remote and not very tangible,’’ said Nahum Barnea, a political columnist for the Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper.

On the Israeli side, Sharon’s government has not yet accepted the road map, saying it has major reservations with some of the plan’s key provision, particularly timelines for creating a provisional Palestinian government by the end of this year and a fully independent and sovereign state by 2005. And while the road map outlines “reciprocal’’ steps the Israelis and Palestinians are expected to take in tandem, the Israeli government has demanded that the Palestinians end attacks against Israelis before it takes any significant actions.

This week, Sharon — whose coalition government contains several parties that oppose Palestinian statehood and have threatened to quit if he adopts the road map — added a new twist: Palestinian refugees must give up their longstanding claim of a “right to return’’ to areas inside Israel which they left during the 1948 Arab-Israeli war following Israel’s declaration of independence.

Sharon spokesman Raanan Gissin said that giving up the right of return was not a “precondition’’ to opening talks, but rather was a “prerequisite to successfully completing negotiations at the end.’’

Analysts say the issue is pivotal because if all four million Palestinian refugees living outside Israel and the territories returned, when combined with the 4.3 million Palestinians already here, they could overwhelm the 5.4 million Jews living in Israel and threaten its existence as a Jewish state.

Critics of Sharon say that by immediately raising such an important and divisive issue, he appears intent on derailing the road map, which he has criticized publicly for months.

In addition, they said, Powell’s visit was dramatically undercut this week when it was announced that Sharon would visit Washington on May 20, giving the impression that the prime minister could circumvent the whole process by appealing directly to Bush.

Some analysts say Sharon hopes to drag the issue into the US election year, when few American politicians would want to press Israel to make tough concessions.

“The strategy is to delay until the Americans simply give up trying,’’ said Michael Tarazi, a Palestinian spokesman. “It’s the start of bringing extraneous demands and conditions that are intended to destroy the process before it even starts.’’

On the Palestinian side, the new prime minister, Abbas, is locked in a power struggle with Arafat, who continues to exert substantial control over Palestinian security agencies. Their differences became public this week when Abbas, also known as Abu Mazen, tried to shift full authority for security matters to a key aide and the move was blocked by Arafat.