For the past 10 days, thousands of students have been protesting against the regime in Iran. Started in Tehran University, the movement has spread to campuses in other major cities. It has also attracted some middle class support while industrial workers in a number of cities have staged symbolic walkouts in solidarity.

This is not the first time that Iranian students rise against the Islamist system. Their first revolt came in 1979, soon after the late Ayatollah Khomeini seized power. He reacted by closing all universities for two years. The latest series of campus revolts, began in 1998, has continued unabated since.

Is Iran on the verge of a “second revolution” or civil war as some commentators suggest? The answer is: No. The reason is that a consensus may yet emerge inside Iran for constitutional change through a referendum.

The idea is to remove two articles of the constitution and amend six others, thus separating the mosque from the state. Under the proposals the position of “supreme guide”, currently held by Ali Khamenei will be abolished, allowing Iran to become a “normal” republic with a president and Parliament elected by and accountable to the people.

Today, hardly anyone even within the establishment is prepared to defend the principle of “Velayat-e-Faqih” under which a mulla, named the supreme guide, is regarded as the embodiment of divine will on earth and given absolute powers in the name of his infallibility.

The establishment is no longer strong enough to crush its opponents as it routinely did throughout the 1980 and 1990s. The armed and police forces have made it clear they would not shoot anti-regime demonstrators. And the regime’s hired thugs, known as Hizbullah, are not numerous enough, and confident enough to, beat opponents and disperse demonstrations.

The students’ demand for constitutional change seems to have some support within the establishment. Over two-thirds of the members of the Islamic Majlis (parliament) have published an open letter to Khamenei, to endorse the call for the separation of mosque and state. Another open letter, signed by 250 intellectuals with impeccable Khomeinist credentials, goes further by calling for the establishment of a Western-style democratic system.

Iran today resembles a double-headed eagle, trying to fly in opposite directions at the same time. One head represents the Khomeinist revolution with its forlorn ambition of exporting a bankrupt ideology and to create an Islamic “superpower”, to confront the American “Great Satan”. The other head represents the Iranian nation-state, one of the oldest in the world.

Over 60 percent of Iran’s population of 70 million are aged below 30. Suffering from negative economic growth for part of the past decade, the country is unable to provide the educational, leisure and job opportunities its youth need. In terms of disposable individual income the average Iranian today is 50 percent poorer than in 1977. A report by the IMF on “brain drain” places it at No. 1 among 91 developing nations. Each year up to 180,000 highly educated Iranians immigrate, mostly to North America. There are more Iranian doctors in Canada than in Iran itself. Of the 140 graduates who came first in Tehran University in the year 2000, more than 90 have migrated to the United States. Youth unemployment hovers around 30 percent.

Khamenei’s claim last week that the demonstrations were organized by “American mercenaries” was part of an initial panic reaction. Since then wiser counsel seems to have prevailed. Now, even his associates admit that the pro-democracy movement is too broad-based to be dismissed as part of the pressure that the Bush administration is exerting on the regime.

President George W. Bush’s expression of support for the pro-democracy movement has been generally well received in Iran. The American presence in countries neighbouring Iran is worrying the establishment. But this does not mean that there is any support for an aggressive posture by the US. The threat of American military action could backfire by triggering an Iranian nationalistic reflex.