Alvin Toffler, author of the book “Future Shock”, has said that the quick defeat of the Iraqi regime was unexpected by both the Bush administration and the American military, adding that the campaign should be called “the fastest war in history.”
He said in an article analyzing various related events that “when the time came for Iraq, the word ‘dilemma’ was apparent long before the arrival of American soldiers in Baghdad.”
What he meant was that the swift American victory in Iraq did not translate into the Americans in effect taking control of the country. The country had been repressed by a savage dictator for decades and that repression was not easy to throw off. The confusion of Garner, the American-appointed Iraqi ruler, is evidence of the dilemma. The American administration thought that their ruler would assume full control of Iraq and begin his civil administration as soon as the Iraqi regime fell. But it did not work out that way. To save America’s reputation, Bremer was brought in to replace Garner and still the Americans are confused. US involvement in Iraq is falling into problems far faster than anyone expected.
Toffler wanted to prove that his idea was correct on two points: One relates to the lingering memories of Vietnam and a time when Washington needed a decade of involvement before admitting the problem. In the case of war on Afghanistan, things happened in a matter of weeks. When the role fell to Iraq, America admitted the problem before the arrival of American soldiers in Baghdad. Saddam said that the Americans would commit suicide on the walls of Baghdad.
This of course never happened, since Iraqi officials were bribed to make the city easy to take.
This was not the only thing that led to the rapid fall of Baghdad. The other point which Toffler makes is that the battle was between two kinds of power: one pre-technological and the other well into a technological period. Once again we ask if technological advancement alone can guarantee America, the great empire, victory in Iraq.
What should Washington expect in the 21st century, the century that is so far dominated by the American superpower? We have to expect more loss of patience, tension and confusion. We also have to add the word “dilemma” to whatever Washington is planning.
Arab News From the Local Press 18 August 2003
