The recent raid on Syria marks the start of a new approach by Israel based on George Bush’s doctrine of pre-emptive war. The doctrine was used to justify both the war against Afghanistan and the occupation of Iraq. Bush launched his war against Iraq to prevent its regime from using its illusive weapons of mass destruction.
Israel used the same justification to launch an air strike against what it continues to claim is a training camp for the Palestinian organization Islamic Jihad and what Syria insists was a refugee camp. What is really frightening here is that Israel has embarked on a new strategy in dealing with the region. It follows long years of aggression against the Palestinian population and the state of Lebanon, where Hezbollah has been engaging Israel along its northern border.
Who knows, tomorrow Israel may claim it was forced to strike the Gulf countries under the pretext that these provide financial support to Palestinian organizations, which do not like Israel. The aggression may thus broaden to cover other countries. It is obvious that Ariel Sharon is bent on further complicating an already dangerous situation, forcing the world to preoccupy itself with new realities of Israel’s making and thereby deflecting attention from the real problem.
No Arab country, however strong, could hope to stand up to Israel given the prevailing political and military circumstances. Confronting Israel militarily would amount to suicide.
The only solution lies in putting international pressure on Tel Aviv, especially from the side of the United States, which is the only party capable of preventing the region from exploding.
This of course is only possible if Washington shows real interest in working to prevent another explosion.
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A reality that runs counter to common sense is that Germany after World War II did not sign a peace treaty with the United States. Instead, the defeated and the victor settled for a cease-fire agreement. Yet a defeated and devastated Germany came out of the ashes as the economic miracle of the 20th century with the help of its American allies. Washington may try to do the same in Iraq if it can guarantee that the country remains under its control for at least half a century to come.
Just before Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder began his tour of the Gulf region last week, there was talk about new alliances being struck in the region aimed at achieving a minimum of balance with the Americans.
Although Germany has no military influence, it nevertheless enjoys tremendous credibility that has been consolidated over the years. A recent example is its stand against the war in Iraq, a position that strained relations between Schroeder and President George Bush, who refused to visit Germany as part of his recent European tour. While determined to fight terrorism, Germany felt that two years after the Sept. 11 attacks America had not supplied any solid proof that the crime was committed solely by Al-Qaeda and that no other parties have worked to push America into exploiting the situation to impose its military hegemony over the world.
Germany’s credibility is stronger than that of France, where the most powerful Jewish lobby in Europe lives, and is capable of influencing future events. Nor can Germany be compared with Russia, which has no credibility whatsoever. The problem with Germany is that following the country’s unification it was plunged into internal problems that arose from trying to raise the living standard of its citizens in former East Germany.
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(Muhammad Al-Shibani is a Saudi writer. He is based in Jeddah.)
