Launch Seen Bringing China Closer to ‘Great Power’ Status

WASHINGTON, 17 October 2003 — With Sino-American ties at a stable point, the United States on Wednesday played down the military implications of China’s launch of a manned space mission but the feat was widely seen as one more sign of Beijing’s evolution toward becoming a “great power.”

In the short-term, the major strategic impact would be felt by Asian neighbors India, Japan and Taiwan, but Washington would have to maintain a watchful eye over the long term as China seems committed to an aggressive advanced rocket program, US officials and experts said.

China on Wednesday became only the third country to put a man in space, sending a single astronaut on a 21-hour odyssey around the Earth four decades after the Soviet Union and the United States pioneered manned space flight.

“It shows their emergence as one of three great powers and — given Russia’s decline — as one of the two great powers,” a senior Bush administration told Reuters, adding: “It’s intended to have a political impact.”

China, a permanent member of the UN Security Council and one of the world’s fastest growing economies, is increasingly playing a more active role in international diplomacy.

This includes cooperating with Washington on anti-terrorism efforts and nudging North Korea toward nuclear talks.

Officially, the US government had nothing but praise for China’s manned space launch, even though by comparison the feat highlighted problems with its own space program.

“This is a historic achievement and we applaud China’s success in becoming only the third country to launch people into space,” State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said.

Washington gave Beijing a “collision avoidance analysis” to make sure the spacecraft would not collide with any of an estimated 10,000 known objects in orbit, including US satellites, but Boucher said such assistance is routine for all US and Russian space flight activities.

Privately, another US official told Reuters: “We’re trying to downplay the military significance of the launch.”

This tactic has merit because many argue the launch has little military significance and Washington has more to gain by continuing to nurture a unique harmony in Sino-American relations that has existed since the Sept 11, 2001, attacks on New York and Washington.

Some Republicans, viewing China as an enemy, have favored aggressive steps to counter its power, but have allowed President George W. Bush to pursue a pro-engagement strategy.

The manned space launch “is not Sputnik II or a new space race,” like the one between the United States and the Soviet Union in the Cold War, said Bates Gill of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Alan Romberg, author of a new book on Taiwan, called the launch a justifiable source of Chinese national pride but “not an immediate matter of (US) national concern.”

As China develops increasingly capable space capabilities, Washington “will need to take that into account, but I don’t think it’s anything the US should be panicking over and I don’t detect any signs that it is,” Romberg, head of the China program at the Henry L. Stimson Center, told Reuters.

Larry Wortzel of the conservative Heritage Foundation said Washington would be “foolish to react to the (manned launch) as if it were some sort of challenge.”

While there are “incremental military benefits” from a manned space program, the United States should continue to pursue its own program on its own schedule and needs, he said.

Recalling how space cooperation became a way for the United States and the Soviet Union to build mutual confidence, he suggested the United States, China and Russia do the same.

Still, Wortzel has written that “the newest battlefield for China will be space” and a US military report last July said China’s manned space efforts “almost certainly will contribute to improved military space systems in the 2010-2020 time frame.”

Mark Stokes, head of the Pentagon’s China desk, voiced similar fears at the Heritage Foundation earlier this month.

China’s “space assets will play a major role in any future use of force against Taiwan and in preventing a foreign intervention in a Taiwan scenario,” he said, according to the China Post. The United States has a long-standing promise to help Taiwan defend itself.

Besides Taiwan, which China considers a renegade province, the main strategic and political impact of the space launch likely will be felt by India and Japan.

India already has its own satellite and missile programs and, seeing China as its main rival, likely will accelerate its efforts although it may not feel a need for a manned program which is costly and mostly for prestige, Wortzel said.

Japan, which has launched reconnaissance satellites, may consider a manned space program but almost certainly will move quickly to initiate a missile defense program, he said.