American policy in Iraq is running deeper and deeper into trouble. Coalition forces are not only going head to head with insurgents in the so-called Sunni Triangle, of which Fallujah is a major part, but they have also vowed to destroy the 10,000 Shiite militia loyal to the fugitive cleric Moqtada Sadr. Though the insurgents may represent extreme views within their own communities, moderate Iraqi opinion will be alienated as the US and its allies try to crush them. We have already seen the deaths of innocent civilians, either in cross-fires or apparently because of missiles from US helicopter gunships. A year after Saddam’s regime ended, ordinary Iraqis will not accept the same number of collateral casualties of that original conflict. George W. Bush promised them peace and security, power, water, hospitals, education. Most of those promises have not been kept and suddenly the country is being plunged again into widespread violence.
Even if Coalition forces are successful in the present battles in Fallujah against Moqtada Sadr’s insurgents, there will be no lasting victory. Others will come forward to replace those who are slain and public support for them will grow. Iraqis, who once placed their faith in Washington, are now despairing. In times of uncertainty, people understandably turn to their immediate communities for support. They will abandon the lofty sentiments of a pluralist, multiethnic united Iraq. The prospect of civil conflict is now more real than at any time since Saddam’s ouster.
It didn’t have to be this way. Had America been more informed and more sensitive to the complexities and subtleties of Iraqi society, it could probably have avoided what has become its growing failure. Unfortunately Bush’s overweening confidence in the rightness of his solution, coupled with a misplaced certainty in the effectiveness of America’s massive military power, always promised disaster.
The Iraqi people, for whose future American lives and money are being spent, are now calling Washington the enemy. In the face of this perceived ingratitude, the view will grow that America should leave these thankless people to their own devices. If such a policy is adopted, what is happening in Iraq will be transformed from a disaster into a major catastrophe.
There might yet be salvation in a dominant role for the United Nations. At least Iraqis might feel they were talking to people more aware and more schooled in conflict resolution and nation building. In order for the UN to return and take over, however, would still require massive international military support. That can only come from Russia, France and Germany and the anti-war countries which Bush snubbed before the war. Such a humiliation for America would be disastrous for his re-election bid.
