NEW ORLEANS, Louisiana, 23 April 2004 — American-led soldiers are storming Afghanistan for Osama Bin Laden. They hunt him because he is popularly the most dangerous personality on the planet, and because capturing him would virtually guarantee the re-election of President George W. Bush.

Operation Mountain Storm’s leader, US Gen. Eric Olson, announced the “hunt... is a top priority mission for these forces,” referring to the 100,000 Pakistani Army, Ranger commandos and paramilitary troops, as well as the US 25th Infantry Division and a joint US Special Ops commando unit, TF-121, including Delta Force, Navy SEALS, and British Special Air Service fighters, who have built hundreds of observer outposts along hundreds of border miles, dug out helipads over craggy aeries, and excavated mountain bunkers.

Says Gen. Olson: “You will see, over the coming months, additional capabilities, additional resources, devoted to this hunt.”

Now, imagine something unthinkable.

Imagine John Kerry, Bush’s Democratic opponent, secretly working behind the American government’s back to make sure Bush did not capture Bin Laden or find weapons.

Imagine Kerry or his campaign manager in contact with Al-Qaeda, plotting how the rest of the war on terrorism would go.

Imagine Kerry or his “people” cutting deals with Bin Laden’s “people” just to cost Bush the pre-election popularity that would put him over the bump that would win Bush the presidency.

That bump now known as the “October surprise.”

Unthinkable?

Except Kerry can’t come close. Kerry claims he follows the rules.

Pulling off an “October surprise” involves breaking them.

It may have happened before.

Time? 1981. Place? Iran.

In 1981, then-President Carter defended his presidency against Reagan in a close race. Reagan’s odd choice for campaign manager was William Casey, a former OSS officer who later headed the CIA. But maybe Casey, a career “spook,” was really the best man for the job. A Senate committee later discovered Casey’s campaign duties included illicitly obtaining highly classified White House intelligence about Carter’s hostage crisis. Iranian fundamentalists had deposed the Shah and held US Embassy workers hostage. Carter froze Iranian bank funds, put Iranian US arms purchases on ice, and imposed a worldwide arms embargo on Iran. War with Iraq loomed, and Iran needed money and weapons. So it immediately commenced negotiations with Carter.

Israel reportedly decided the enemy of Israel’s enemy, Iraq, was now their friend, and itched to sell Iran arms. But how to circumvent Carter’s embargo?

Journalists say Iranian exiles and Israelis initially approached Carter, but Reagan’s people offered a better deal: Keep the US hostages imprisoned until after the election, and it will be worth your while.

Unthinkable.

Did it happen?

Hard to say. Many witnesses are now dead or incapacitated.

But Iran stopped talking to Carter. And Carter lost to Reagan, who’d announced just two months earlier he had a “secret plan” involving the US hostages and “quiet diplomacy.”

Iran released the hostages fifteen minutes after Reagan’s inaugural address. And then Iran got lots of weapons. For years.

In 1990, NATO Gen. Alexander Haig, Reagan’s secretary of state, admitted the Reagan White House “winked” at

Iran’s arms. And in 1991 Reagan, alongside Bush the father, remarked that in 1980, he’d “tried some things the other way” to free the American hostages, but claimed the details were “classified.”

Liberal journalists cried “treason,” saying Reagan’s campaign had dealt with a hostile foreign government well before it even took office, solely in order to defeat a standing domestic administration.

But Newsweek’s Eleanor Clift predicted no investigation would discover concrete wrongdoing because “Israel’s supporters on Capital Hill” did “not want to put the spotlight on Israel’s role” as middle-men arms dealers in disregard of Carter’s arms embargo.

Reporters wondered: Were Israelis able to “blackmail” the Reagan White House over the “arms for hostages” deal?

And were they able to blackmail Reagan’s Vice President George Bush the father, who later became president?

Ponder current events — the Bush (the son’s) administration’s passive acquiescence in Israel’s brutal assassination policy, and Bush’s endorsement of Sharon’s retention of Palestinian territories and rejection of Palestinians’ right of return. Is some kind of Israeli “fix” again in the works?

And why is Bush, years after 9/11 and numerous promises to capture Bin Laden, only now on the hunt? Former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright recently pondered: “Do you suppose that the Bush administration has Osama Bin Laden hidden away somewhere, and will bring him out before the election?”

Unthinkable. But as Bush the father observed, “When you are a president, you have an ability to shape things to some degree.”

Shape things so war in Afghanistan and Iraq continues until the timing is just right. In October.

Surprise?

Bush seems almost giddy with optimism.

The cost in human lives would be...unthinkable.

But that’s Bush’s growing reputation in Middle East matters. Junking the road map.

Doing the unthinkable.

— Sarah Whalen is an expert in Islamic law and taught law at Loyola University School of Law in New Orleans, Louisiana.