The result of the Cypriot reunification referendum is a disaster for the Turkish Cypriot community and endangers Ankara’s desire to join the European Union. The whole debacle can be laid at the door of one man, veteran Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash. At times, the politician who has led the community in northern Cyprus since the Turkish intervention in 1974 has evidently imagined that his tiny state, recognized by no other government than the one in Ankara, is in an unassailably strong geopolitical position. Even if this were once true, the world has changed but Denktash seemed to take no notice. He continued to insist on the independence of his mini-state and fought off repeated attempts at mediation and reunification by making unacceptable demands of the Greek Cypriot community.
This misjudgment threw away the final, and perhaps the best, opportunity to heal the divided island during talks with his old political rival Glafcos Clerides. The two old men, both lawyers who were once opponents in the united island’s law courts, now confronted each other as leaders of their respective communities. Clerides, who was facing an election, wanted a deal. Denktash did not; he kept upping his demands until Clerides could concede no more. When the Greek president lost power in February 2003, it was too late for any deal. The new president, Tassos Papadopoulos, rightly calculated that Greek Cyprus was on track for EU membership next month and did not need the Turkish community. Indeed, many Greeks will have calculated that if the north of the island also joined the EU, the funds from Brussels would be more widely spread and thus they would get less.
The Turkish Cypriots meanwhile voted overwhelmingly for reunification, thus demonstrating how little their president had represented their mood. It is within this endorsement by two votes to one that a way out of the present impasse can be found. Ankara has been reluctant to withdraw its troops without a deal that recognizes the rights of the Turkish Cypriot minority. The Europeans at the same time are angry that the Greek part of the island has rejected a deal which its negotiators had so carefully crafted. The answer may lie in Brussels now producing guarantees to protect the Turkish north, guarantees which would allow Turkish troops to leave. Though a sovereign member of the EU, the Greek part of the island could find itself exposed to considerable political and economic pressure for it to review the rejection of reunification.
The EU could indeed begin treating Turkish Cyprus as if it were effectively already part of the organization. That might well concentrate Greek Cypriot minds. There is however one prerequisite to any future advance and that is that President Denktash, his policies decisively rejected by his people, resign.
