Though Ariel Sharon made it sound as if the Likud party vote on his Gaza withdrawal plan could bring down his government, he only took a limited gamble. He made clear that if he lost the vote, he would present his plan to his Cabinet and to Parliament, where the chances of approval remain. Sharon could also call a national referendum in which he would probably win. And though right-wing and settler parties have threatened to bolt from Sharon’s coalition government if the plan wins approval, he would still have the option of either forming a new coalition or asking Israel’s president to call new elections. Because of a reasonably strong constituency and in the absence of a viable opponent, Sharon will be able to survive either challenge. That the Likud faithful have given the plan the thumbs-down is not, for Sharon, the end of the world.
The withdrawal proposal does not, as some suggest, mark a drastic departure for Sharon, the foremost champion of settlement expansion. Indeed, losing Gaza is no sacrifice at all. Gaza is a wretched scrub of land, a security nightmare for Israel, which does not have the resources to cope with its 1.3 million Palestinian inhabitants. It has no meaningful resources Israel can plunder.
For Sharon, the big issue about leaving Gaza has nothing to do with its importance but rather with Israel’s image. The Palestinians must be seen as being convinced that Israel is not leaving Gaza “with its tail between its legs”, as army commanders have put it. Sharon’s Likud opponents and far-right coalition partners say that leaving Gaza would “reward terror”. Thus we know the message of the missile strikes that incinerated Sheikh Yassin and Abdelaziz Rantissi.
The fear in the Israeli Army is that Hamas believes that its rejection of Gaza’s occupation forced a withdrawal, Palestinian resistance in the West Bank — which Sharon does want to hold on to — will be galvanized.
He is trying to persuade the world that the evacuation is a magnanimous gesture, a step forward in the peace process. But that claim cannot be reconciled with his determination to forever hold on to larger West Bank settlements. That, of course, is the compensation for the so-called loss of Gaza.
No matter how the Gaza plan fares, Sharon says he will not quit. That means the man who perpetuated the uprising — in fact helped start it — built the wall of separation, assassinated top Palestinian officials, extracted from a US president unprecedented concessions and now is in the midst of taking unilateral decisions on behalf of the Palestinians, is a reality the Palestinians, and with them the whole Middle East, will have to deal with for a long time to come.
